The Main Pick
Today's Serie B clash between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol kicks off at 14:00, and the models have a clear view: Sudtirol is the team to back. Both models independently agree on the outcome, and the market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate. It's a straightforward case of the market underestimating Sudtirol's chances.
The primary model gives Sudtirol a 48% win probability, with Juve Stabia on 25% and a draw at 27%. The sG (signal goals) for Sudtirol stands at 1.41, compared to Juve Stabia's 0.93. The probability of both teams scoring is 48.7%, and there's a 44% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals. Both models are clear: Sudtirol to win.
Looking at recent form, Juve Stabia's home record shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 3 games, scoring 1 goal per game and conceding 2. Their average home shots this season are 14.5 per game, with 4 on target. Sudtirol, on the other hand, has a recent away record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 4 games, scoring 1.25 goals per game and conceding 0.75. Their average away shots this season are 10.5 per game, with 3.3 on target.
The market odds for a Sudtirol win are 3.4, whilst the model's fair odds are 2.08. This implies a value edge of 63.3%. The market is pricing Sudtirol's chances much lower than the models suggest, making this a clear value opportunity.
Also Worth Watching
In Serie B, the models have identified another value opportunity. Keep an eye on this fixture as the data suggests the away team is undervalued.
The 2. Bundesliga also presents a value opportunity today. The models favour the away team, indicating a potential mismatch between the market odds and the true probability of the outcome.
Closing Note
Head over to the signals page for all of today's value selections. The data is clear, and the decisions are yours.