The Main Pick
Tonight's Segunda División clash between Leganes and Cordoba kicks off at 19:30, and both models independently agree: Cordoba is the team to back. The key finding here is simple but powerful: the market price for a Cordoba win implies a lower probability than the models calculate. Both models independently agree on the outcome, and the market price suggests a lower win probability for Cordoba than the models see.
The primary model gives Cordoba a 45.5% win probability, with Leganes at 30.6% and a draw at 23.9%. The model's expected goals (sG) are 1.3 for Leganes and 1.65 for Cordoba. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 54%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is 50.9%. Both models independently agree on the direction: Cordoba to win.
Let's look at the recent form. Leganes' recent home results show a 1-0 win over Mirandes, a 1-0 win over Eldense, a 3-2 win over Granada CF, and a 0-2 loss to Castellón. Their home record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1 per game over 4 matches. Their season average at home is 11.4 shots per game, with 3.5 on target.
Cordoba's away form is more mixed: a 2-3 loss to Burgos, a 2-3 loss to Sabadell, a 2-1 win over Albacete, a 1-3 loss to Valladolid, and a 1-2 loss to Eldense. Their away record is 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 1.6 goals per game and conceding 2.4 per game over 5 matches. Their season average away is 14.8 shots per game, with 4.4 on target.
The market price for a Cordoba win is 3, whilst the model's fair odds are 2.2. This implies a value edge of 36.5%. Cordoba is the clear value selection here.
Also Worth Watching
In the Superliga, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the home team. Keep an eye on this one.
In the 2. Bundesliga, the models have spotted a value opportunity favouring the away team. This could be worth a closer look.
Closing Note
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.