The Main Pick
La Liga, Friday 20 October at 20:00. The models favour Espanyol. Both models independently agree on the outcome and the market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate.
Here's what the models see: Espanyol has the highest win probability at 52.5%. Malaga comes in at 22.4% and the draw sits at 25%. Both models independently agree on the direction: Espanyol to win. The signal goals (sG) for Malaga are 0.93 and for Espanyol, they're 1.6. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 48.7% and the over 2.5 goals probability is 43.6%.
Let's look at recent form. Malaga's home results show 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. They've scored 0.75 goals per game and conceded 1.25. Their home shots average 10 per game, with 2 on target. Espanyol's away form shows 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses. They've scored 1.5 goals per game and conceded 1.25. Their away shots average 13.6 per game, with 3.9 on target.
The market price for a Espanyol win is 2.62, whilst the model's fair price is 1.9. That implies a value edge of 37.6%.
Also Worth Watching
2. Bundesliga: the models have identified a value opportunity here. Keep an eye on this one.
Serie B: another league where the models see value. Worth a look.
Closing
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.