The Main Pick
Today's main pick is in the Segunda División, where Albacete host Eibar at 13:00. Both models independently agree: Eibar has the highest win probability at 59.5%. The market price implies a much lower probability than the models calculate, so there is a clear value edge here.
The primary model gives Albacete a 18.2% win probability, a 22.3% draw probability, and Eibar a 59.5% win probability. The secondary model agrees on the direction: Eibar to win. The model's fair odds for an Eibar win are 1.68, whilst the bookmaker market odds are 2.6. That means the market price implies a 38.5% win probability for Eibar, whilst the models calculate it at 59.5%. The implied value edge is +54.6%.
In terms of expected goals (sG), the model projects Albacete at 0.9 and Eibar at 1.87. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 52.6%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is 51.7%.
Looking at recent form, Albacete's home results have been mixed. They won 3-1 against Real Sociedad II on 24 May, but have since lost their last three home games 1-2, 0-1, and 1-2. They average 12 shots and 4 on target per home game this season.
Eibar's away form has been stronger. They lost their first two away games 1-2 and 1-2, but have since won three in a row 1-0, 4-0, and 2-1. They average 11.6 shots and 4.9 on target per away game this season.
The market odds of 2.6 for an Eibar win imply a 38.5% win probability, whilst the models calculate it at 59.5%. The implied value edge is +54.6%.
Also Worth Watching
In League One, the models have identified a value opportunity on the home side. The recent home form and model projections suggest the market has underpriced this selection.
Closing
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.