The Main Pick
This Sunday at 13:00, Segunda División sees Valladolid host Cordoba. The models favour Cordoba to win this one. Here's the key finding: both models independently agree on the outcome, and the market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate.
The primary model gives Cordoba a 42.7% win probability, Valladolid 32.3%, and a draw 25%. Both models independently agree on the direction: Cordoba to win. The signal goals (sG) for the match are Valladolid 1.27 and Cordoba 1.51. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 51.2%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is 47.2%.
Looking at recent form, Valladolid's home results show a mixed bag. They won 2-0 against Zaragoza but lost 0-2 to Deportivo La Coruna. They edged FC Andorra 1-0 but fell 0-3 to Oviedo. Their home record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.25. They average 11.7 shots per game at home, with 3.5 on target.
Cordoba's away form has been tougher. They lost 0-2 to Eibar, 2-3 to Burgos, and 2-3 to Sabadell, but secured a 2-1 win against Albacete. Their away record is 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding 2.25. They average 15.7 shots per game on the road, with 4.5 on target.
The market odds for a Cordoba win are 3.1, whilst the model's fair odds are 2.34. That gives us an implied value edge of 32.4%.
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.