The Main Pick

Today's top pick comes from Ligue 1, where the models have identified a clear value opportunity. The fixture is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29, kicking off at 14:00. Both models independently agree: Stade Brestois 29 has the highest win probability at 55.4%. This is a strong signal, especially when you consider the market odds of 2.45 for an away win. The model's fair odds for a Stade Brestois 29 win are 1.81, meaning the market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate. That's a 35.6% value edge, which is worth noting.

Let's break down what the models see. The primary model gives Auxerre a 24.2% chance of winning, a 20.2% chance of a draw, and Stade Brestois 29 a 55.4% chance of taking the three points. Both models agree on the direction: Stade Brestois 29 to win. The sG (signal goals) for Auxerre is 1.38, whilst for Stade Brestois 29 it's 2.2. The BTTS (both teams to score) probability is 53.1%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 52.7%. These numbers paint a clear picture: Stade Brestois 29 is the favoured side.

Looking at recent form, Auxerre's home results show a mixed bag. They've won three, drawn one, and lost one of their last five home games, scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding one. Their home shots average 12.3 per game, with 5.3 on target. Stade Brestois 29's away form is slightly weaker, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five away games. They've scored one goal per game whilst conceding 1.8. Their away shots average 22 per game, with 6.8 on target.

Given all this, the market price of 2.45 for a Stade Brestois 29 win looks overly generous compared to the model's fair odds of 1.81. That's a 35.6% value edge, making this a selection worth considering.

Also Worth Watching

In Serie A, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the home team. Keep an eye on this one.

Another Serie A fixture shows value on the away side. This could be a selection to consider for your acca or bet builder.

Closing Note

Head to the signals page to find all of today's value selections.