The Main Pick
Today's Bundesliga clash between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg kicks off at 14:30. The models have a clear view: SC Freiburg, the away team, is the side to watch. Both models independently agree on this outcome and the market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate.
The primary model gives SC Freiburg a 64.8% win probability, whilst Eintracht Frankfurt's win probability sits at 18% and the draw at 15.4%. Both models independently agree on the direction: SC Freiburg to win. The sG (signal goals) for SC Freiburg stands at 3.05, compared to Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.57. The BTTS probability is 71.8% and the over 2.5 probability is 74.4%.
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent home form shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 home games, scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding 2.6. They average 15 shots per game at home, with 5.3 on target. SC Freiburg's away form is stronger, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in their last 3 away games, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 1.33. They average 21.8 shots per game away, with 8 on target.
The market price for a SC Freiburg win is 2.8, whilst the model's fair odds are 1.54. This implies a value edge of 81.3%.
Also Worth Watching
The Bundesliga offers two more value opportunities today. In the first fixture, the models favour the away team. In the second, the same applies: the away side carries the value. Keep an eye on these selections.
Today's Value Selections
Head to the signals page to explore all of today's value selections.