The Main Pick
La Liga kicks off at 17:30 on Sunday with Getafe hosting Deportivo La Coruna. Both our models independently favour Deportivo La Coruna to win this one. Here's the key finding: the market price for a Deportivo La Coruna win implies a much lower probability than what our models calculate.
The primary model gives Deportivo La Coruna a 47.5% win probability, with Getafe at 27.7% and a draw at 24.8%. Both models agree on the direction: Deportivo La Coruna to win. The sG (signal goals) for Getafe is 1.14, whilst Deportivo La Coruna's is 1.59. The probability for both teams to score (BTTS) is 55.4%, and the probability for over 2.5 goals is 52.5%.
Getafe's recent home results show a mixed bag: 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 home games. They've scored an average of 1.6 goals per game and conceded 0.8. Their average shots per game at home this season are 10, with 2.6 on target. Deportivo La Coruna's away form is stronger: 3 wins, 2 draws, and no losses in their last 5 away games. They've scored an average of 1.6 goals per game and conceded 0.8. Their average shots per game away this season are 8.3, with 3.5 on target.
Here's where the value lies: the bookmaker market odds for a Deportivo La Coruna win are 3.7, whilst our model's fair odds are 2.1. That's a value edge of 75.8%. The market is undervaluing Deportivo La Coruna by a significant margin.
Also Worth Watching
In the Eredivisie, our models have identified a value opportunity favouring the home team. The recent form and underlying metrics suggest the market price is longer than it should be.
The Superliga also offers a value opportunity, with our models favouring the home side. Again, the market price appears to undervalue this selection based on the data.
Closing Note
Head to the signals page to explore all of today's value selections in detail.