The Main Pick
Today's Serie A clash between Genoa and Frosinone kicks off at 14:00. The models favour Frosinone, and here's why you should pay attention. Both models independently agree: Frosinone has the highest win probability at 65%. The primary model breaks it down like this: Genoa 14.5%, Draw 20.2%, Frosinone 65%. The sG (signal goals) for Genoa is 0.82, whilst Frosinone's is a much higher 2.04. The BTTS probability is 52.6% and the over 2.5 probability is 51.9%. Both models are clear: Frosinone to win.
Let's talk recent form. Genoa's home record is shaky: 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses in their last 5 home games. They've scored 0.8 goals per game and conceded 2.2. Their home shots average this season is 10 per game, with 1.7 on target. Frosinone, on the other hand, has been solid on the road. They've won all 4 of their recent away games, scoring 2.25 goals per game and conceding just 0.5. Their away shots average this season is 12 per game, with 5.3 on target.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The market odds for a Frosinone win are 3.75, but the model's fair odds are 1.54. That's a value edge of 143.8%. In plain English, the bookmaker price is far longer than the model's fair odds. Frosinone is undervalued.
Also Worth Watching
In the Premier League, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the away team. Keep an eye on this one.
La Liga also offers a value selection, with the model favouring the away side. This could be worth a look.
Closing
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.