The Main Pick
Today's main pick is in the Segunda División, kicking off at 13:00. Both models independently agree: Granada CF is the team to back. The market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate, making this a clear value opportunity.
The primary model gives Granada CF a 51.4% win probability, whilst Eibar is at 22% and the draw sits at 26.6%. Both models independently agree on the direction: Granada CF to win. The sG (signal goals) for Eibar is 0.84, compared to Granada CF's 1.46. The BTTS probability is 49.6%, and the over 2.5 probability is 45.3%.
Looking at recent form, Eibar's home results show a mixed bag: 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 home games. They've scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded the same amount. Their average home shots are 10.7 per game, with 3 on target. Granada CF's away form is equally patchy: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 6 away games. They've scored 1 goal per game and conceded 1.5. Their average away shots are 13.7 per game, with 4.7 on target.
The market price for a Granada CF win is 4, whilst the model's fair odds are 1.95. That gives us a value edge of 105.5%. The price on offer is significantly longer than what the models suggest it should be.
Also Worth Watching
In Ligue 1, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the home team. Keep an eye on this one.
In the Eredivisie, the models see value in the away team. This could be a worthwhile selection if you're looking for an edge.
Closing Note
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.