The Main Pick
Today's Premier League clash between Hull City and Aston Villa kicks off at 17:30. Both our models independently agree: Hull City is the team to back here. The market price of 4 for a Hull City win implies a much lower probability than our models calculate. The primary model gives Hull City a 59.4% win probability, Aston Villa 16.6%, and a draw 24%. Both models are clear: Hull City to win.
The models see Hull City as the stronger side. Hull City's sG (signal goals) is 1.68 compared to Aston Villa's 0.74. The probability of both teams scoring is 39.2%, and the chance of over 2.5 goals is 38.8%. Both models agree on the direction: Hull City to win.
Looking at recent form, Hull City has been solid at home. Their last five home games show three wins, two draws, and no losses. They've scored 1.2 goals per game and conceded just 0.4. Their home shots average 12 per game, with 3.9 on target. Aston Villa's away form is mixed. They've won two, drawn one, and lost three of their last six away games. They score 1.33 goals per game on the road but concede 1.67. Their away shots average 9.3 per game, with only 1.3 on target.
The market price of 4 for a Hull City win is way off the model's fair odds of 1.68. That's a value edge of 137.5%. The price on offer is significantly longer than it should be.
Also Worth Watching
In the Segunda División, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the away side. Keep an eye on this one.
The Bundesliga also offers a value play, with the models favouring the away team. This could be worth a look.
Check the Signals Page
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.