The Main Pick
Serie A kicks off at 17:30 on Sunday with a clash between Frosinone and Juventus. The models favour Frosinone, and here's why you should take notice. Both our independent models agree: Frosinone has the highest win probability at 51.7%. This means the market price of 8 for a Frosinone win is way off the mark. The model's fair odds for a Frosinone victory sit at 1.94, creating a value edge of +313.2%.
Let's break down what the models see. Frosinone's win probability is 51.7%, a draw is at 23.2%, and Juventus' win probability is 25.1%. Both models agree on the direction: Frosinone to win. The expected goals (sG) for Frosinone are 1.78, compared to Juventus' 1.15. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 52.1%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 54.7%.
Recent form tells a compelling story. Frosinone's home results show a strong run: 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 home games. They've scored 2.83 goals per game and conceded just 0.5. Their season average at home is 18.6 shots per game, with 6.8 on target. Juventus, on the other hand, have been solid on the road with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 away games. They've scored 1 goal per game and conceded 0.4, with an average of 16.8 shots per game and 5.3 on target.
The market price of 8 for a Frosinone win is a clear mismatch with the model's fair odds of 1.94. This 313.2% value edge is too good to ignore. The data points to a significant undervaluation in the market.
Also Worth Watching
In Serie B, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the away team. Keep an eye on this fixture for potential value.
La Liga also presents an interesting scenario where the away side is undervalued. This could be a selection worth considering once you dive into the data.
Check the Signals Page
Head over to the signals page for all of today's value selections.