The Main Pick
La Liga kicks off this weekend, and we've got a cracking fixture lined up for Sunday at 16:00. Racing Santander host Villarreal, and both our models independently agree: Racing Santander have the highest win probability at 59.6%. The market price for a Racing Santander win is 3, whilst our model's fair odds sit at 1.68. That's a value edge of +78.8%, meaning the bookies are pricing this one too short.
Here's what the models see: Racing Santander have a 59.6% chance of winning, with a draw at 19.8% and Villarreal at 20.3%. Both models agree on the direction: Racing Santander to win. The signal goals (sG), our model's expected goals, are 2.22 for Racing Santander and 1.2 for Villarreal. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 56.4%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 59%.
Let's look at recent form. Racing Santander have been on fire at home, with five straight wins: 3-1 vs Sporting Gijon, 5-1 vs Almeria, 4-2 vs Huesca, 4-1 vs Valladolid, and 4-1 vs Cadiz. Their home record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 4 goals per game and conceding 1.2. They average 17.1 shots per game at home, with 7.8 on target.
Villarreal's away form is mixed. They've won 1, drawn 2, and lost 2 of their last 5 away games. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per away game, with 12.6 shots per game and 3.4 on target.
The market price of 3 for a Racing Santander win is well above our model's fair odds of 1.68. That's a significant value edge of 78.8%, meaning the bookies are undervaluing Racing Santander's chances here.
Also Worth Watching
In the Jupiler Pro League, our models have identified a value opportunity favouring the away team. Keep an eye on this one.
The Championship also offers potential value, with our models favouring the away side. It's worth a closer look.
Check the Signals Page
Head to the signals page for all of today's value selections.