The Main Pick
In the Eliteserien, the match between Ham-Kam and Tromso is scheduled for Saturday, 18 July at 13:00. The models indicate that Ham-Kam is the team favoured to win this fixture. Both models independently agree on the outcome, with the market price implying a lower probability than the models calculate.
The primary model assigns a win probability of 49.4% to Ham-Kam, 24.6% to a draw, and 25.9% to Tromso. The model fair odds for a Ham-Kam win are 2.02, while the bookmaker market odds stand at 3.4, presenting a value edge of +68.1%.
The expected goals (sG) for the match are 1.61 for Ham-Kam and 1.08 for Tromso. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 50.7%, and the probability of over 2.5 total goals is 51%.
Ham-Kam's recent home results show a mixed bag, with four wins, zero draws, and one loss in the last five games. They have scored an average of two goals per game and conceded 1.2 goals per game. Tromso's away form is less consistent, with one win, two draws, and one loss in the last four games. They have scored an average of 0.5 goals per game and conceded 1.5 goals per game.
The market price of 3.4 for a Ham-Kam win contrasts with the model's fair price of 2.02, indicating a significant value edge of 68.1%.
Also Worth Watching
In the Allsvenskan, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the away team. The away side appears to be undervalued by the market, presenting a potential selection.
Similarly, in the Eliteserien, the models favour the away team, suggesting that the market has not fully recognised the away side's chances. This presents another potential value selection.
Conclusion
For all of today's value selections, visit the signals page.