Value Selections: 12 July, Viking Undervalued Away

The Main Pick

In the Eliteserien, the match between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking is scheduled for Sunday 12 July at 18:15. Both models independently agree that Viking has the highest win probability in this fixture. The primary model calculates a 64.6% chance of a Viking victory, compared to 16.3% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 18.7% for a draw. The signal goals (sG) for the match are 1.04 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.3 for Viking, indicating a higher expected goal tally for the away team. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 62.5%, while the likelihood of over 2.5 total goals stands at 64.1%.

Sarpsborg 08 FF have shown mixed results in their recent home matches, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss over the last 5 games. They have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with a season average of 10.3 shots and 3.5 on target per home game. Viking, on the other hand, have been in strong form on the road, winning 4 of their last 5 away matches, with only 1 loss. They have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game in these fixtures, with a season average of 14.4 shots and 5.8 on target per away game.

The market price for a Viking win stands at 1.7, while the model's fair odds are 1.55. This discrepancy provides a value edge of 9.8%.

Also Worth Watching

Further value opportunities have been identified in the Eliteserien, where the models favour the away team. These fixtures present potential for a positive return based on the model's analysis.

Readers can find all of today's value selections on the signals page.