Value Selections: 12 June, Bohemians Undervalued Away

In the Premier Division, the match between Derry City and Bohemians on Friday 12 June at 19:45 presents a compelling value opportunity. Both models independently favour Bohemians to win this fixture. The primary model calculates a win probability of 46.6% for Bohemians, compared to 28.7% for Derry City and 24.6% for a draw. Both models align on this outcome, indicating a strong consensus.

The models project Bohemians to have a higher expected goal tally, with 1.6 sG compared to Derry City's 1.19 sG. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) stands at 53.3%, while the likelihood of over 2.5 total goals is 51.1%. These metrics further support the models' preference for Bohemians.

Derry City's recent home form shows a mixed bag, with one win, three draws, and no losses in their last four games. Their average home shot count is 12.5 per game, with 3.6 on target. Bohemians, on the other hand, have been more consistent on the road, securing three wins, no draws, and two losses in their last five away matches. They average 15.1 shots per game away, with 5.1 on target.

The market price for a Bohemians win stands at 2.3, whereas the model's fair odds are 2.14. This discrepancy presents a value edge of 7.3%.

For all of today's value selections, visit the signals page.