Value Selections: 25 May, Aalesund Undervalued Away

The Main Pick

In the Eliteserien, Tromso will host Aalesund on Monday 25 May at 16:00. The models indicate that Aalesund is the team to favour in this fixture. Both models independently agree that Aalesund has the highest probability of winning, with a calculated win probability of 38.7%. The primary model breaks down the probabilities as follows: Tromso 36.8%, Draw 24.5%, Aalesund 38.7%. The models also agree that Aalesund is the team to back for a win.

The expected goals (sG) for both teams are close, with Tromso at 1.43 and Aalesund at 1.48. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) stands at 53.7%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals being scored is 51.3%. The model's fair odds for an Aalesund win are 2.58, whereas the bookmaker market price stands at 6.5, representing a value edge of 151.8%.

Tromso's recent home form has been mixed, with four wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six games. They have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game at home, with a season average of 11.8 shots per game and 4.3 on target. Aalesund's away form has been less consistent, with one win, one draw, and two losses in their last four away games. They have averaged 1 goal scored and 1.75 conceded per game away, with a season average of 14.1 shots per game and 4.4 on target.

The market price of 6.5 for an Aalesund win implies a lower probability than the model's fair price of 2.58, indicating a significant value opportunity. The implied value edge is 151.8%.

Also Worth Watching

The models have identified a value opportunity in the Allsvenskan, favouring the away team. Recent performances and model calculations suggest the away side may be undervalued in this fixture.

Similarly, in the Bundesliga, the models favour the home team, indicating a potential value opportunity. The model's analysis points towards the home side being undervalued in this match.

For all of today's value selections, visit the signals page.