Value Selections: 23 May, Elche Undervalued in La Liga
The Main Pick
In La Liga, Girona will host Elche on Saturday 23 May at 20:00. The models indicate that Elche is the team favoured to win this match. Both models independently agree on the outcome, with Elche having the highest win probability. The market price implies a lower probability than the models calculate.
According to the primary model, Elche has a win probability of 37.9%, Girona 33%, and a draw 28.3%. The secondary model also independently agrees on Elche to win. The model fair odds for a Elche win are 2.64, whereas the bookmaker market odds are 4.33. This represents a value edge of +64.2%.
The models expect a close match, with Girona predicted to score 1.1 goals and Elche 1.25. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 49%, and the probability of over 2.5 total goals is 43.7%.
Girona's recent home results show a mixed form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five games. Girona has averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game at home this season. Elche's away form has been poor, with one win and four losses in the last five games. Elche has averaged 1 goal scored and 2.2 conceded per game away this season.
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