Value Selections: 22 May, Bari Undervalued in Serie B

The Main Pick

In the Serie B fixture scheduled for Friday 22 May at 19:00, both statistical models independently favour Bari to win against Sudtirol. The primary model calculates a win probability of 38.4% for Bari, compared to 33.7% for Sudtirol and 26.9% for a draw. The secondary model also points towards a Bari victory, with similar probabilities. The market price for a Bari win stands at 4.2, while the model's fair odds are 2.6, indicating a potential value edge of 61.3%.

The models project an expected goal tally of 1.19 for Sudtirol and 1.34 for Bari, suggesting a marginal advantage for the away team. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 48.2%, while the probability of over 2.5 total goals is 43.2%. Sudtirol's recent home form has been inconsistent, with a record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last five games, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Bari's away form shows 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses in the last four games, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per match.

The market price of 4.2 for a Bari win contrasts with the model's fair odds of 2.6, highlighting a significant value opportunity.

Also Worth Watching

The models have identified a value opportunity in the Premier Division, where the home team is favoured. Recent performances and model projections suggest a potential edge for the home side.

Similarly, in Serie A, the models indicate a value opportunity favouring the home team. The analysis points towards a favourable outcome for the home side based on recent data and model predictions.

Further Reading

For all of today's value selections, visit the signals page.