Value Selections: 17 May, Auxerre Undervalued in Ligue 1
The Main Pick
In the upcoming Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 17 May at 20:00, both models independently favour Auxerre to win against Lille. The primary model calculates a 40.5% probability of an Auxerre victory, compared to Lille's 29.6% and a 29.2% chance of a draw. This agreement between the models is clear and unambiguous: Auxerre to win.
The primary model's full breakdown shows Lille with a 29.6% win probability, a draw at 29.2%, and Auxerre with a 40.5% chance of winning. The signal goals (sG) metric, which estimates expected goals, favours Auxerre with 1.29 sG compared to Lille's 0.97 sG. The models also indicate a 47.8% probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) and a 45.9% chance of over 2.5 total goals.
Recent form data provides additional context. Lille's home results include a 0-1 loss to Aston Villa, a 3-0 win over Lens, a 0-0 draw with Nice, and a 1-1 draw against Le Havre. Over their recent four home games, Lille has averaged 1 goal scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Auxerre's away form shows two draws and three losses in their last five away games, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
The market price for an Auxerre win stands at 8, while the model's fair odds are 2.47. This discrepancy implies a value edge of 224.2%.
Also Worth Watching
The models have identified value opportunities in two additional leagues. In Serie A, the models favour the away team in an upcoming fixture. Similarly, in the Premier League, the models again favour the away team in a fixture scheduled for this weekend.