Value Selections: 16 May, Atromitos Undervalued Away

The Main Pick

In the Super League 1, the fixture between Larisa and Atromitos is scheduled for Saturday 16 May at 17:00. Both models independently favour Atromitos to win this match. The primary model calculates a win probability of 44.7% for Atromitos, compared to 29.2% for Larisa and 24.2% for a draw. The secondary model mirrors this outcome, with Atromitos also having the highest win probability. The market price for an Atromitos win stands at 3.1, while the model's fair odds are 2.24, indicating a value edge of 38.5%.

The models project a total of 1.16 signal goals (sG) for Larisa and 1.73 sG for Atromitos. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 56.6%, while the likelihood of over 2.5 total goals is 55%. Larisa's recent home form shows a record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game. Their season average is 12 shots per game, with 3.8 on target. Atromitos' away form over the same period is 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Their season average is 11.4 shots per game, with 4.4 on target.

The market price of 3.1 for an Atromitos win contrasts with the model's fair price of 2.24, presenting a clear value opportunity.

Also Worth Watching

In the Jupiler Pro League, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the home team. The models' analysis suggests a higher probability of a home win than the market currently reflects.

In the Segunda División, the models also favour the home team, indicating a potential value opportunity. The home side appears undervalued based on the models' calculations.

Further Reading

For all of today's value selections, visit the signals page.