Value Selections: 10 May, AZ Alkmaar Away Undervalued

The Main Pick

Alright, lads and lasses, let's crack on with today's main pick. We're in the Eredivisie, where the kick-off is set for Sunday at 15:45. The model’s favouring AZ Alkmaar to nick it on the road. Now, Feyenoord are no mugs at home, and with the season winding down, you'd expect them to be all fired up. But the price on AZ Alkmaar to win? It's just crying out for a closer look.

Let’s break it down. Both models, independently, are giving AZ Alkmaar the nod. The primary model’s win probability for AZ Alkmaar sits at 47.9%. That’s nearly a coin toss, but the signal goals (sG) tell a different story. Feyenoord’s expected goals are just 1.04, while AZ Alkmaar’s are 1.85. It’s like comparing a pint of bitter with a full-bodied ale, one’s a sessionable drink, the other’s a proper sipper. Feyenoord’s recent home form is decent, sure, but let's not kid ourselves, they’ve been a bit leaky at the back. And with AZ Alkmaar’s away form showing some flashes of brilliance, this looks like a mismatch on paper.

Feyenoord’s home record has them sitting pretty with four wins and one draw from their last five. But the detail matters here. They’ve averaged 1.8 goals a game at home, conceding just 0.8. Sounds solid, right? But it’s the quality of opposition that counts. Remember that 1-1 draw against Ajax? That’s a team in their own right. On the flip side, AZ Alkmaar’s away form has been a bit of a rollercoaster: one win, one draw, and two losses in their last four. Yet, in those games, they’ve scored and conceded at almost the same rate as Feyenoord at home.

So, what does this all mean? The market’s got AZ Alkmaar at 3.9 to win, but our model’s fair price is just 2.09. That’s a gap of +87% value. It’s like finding a tenner in your jacket pocket after spending the day at the pub, you know it’s there, but you can hardly believe it.

Also Worth Watching

Pick 2 is in the Jupiler Pro League, where the model’s got a soft spot for the away team. It’s not often you see a model favouring the visitors in this league, so it’s worth a second glance. The form books might not show it, but there’s something the model’s picked up on that you won’t find in the headlines.

Pick 3 is over in the Eliteserien, and again, the model’s away team is catching the eye. It’s not every day you see this model tipping the visitors here, so there’s clearly something brewing under the surface. Maybe it’s the form, maybe it’s the fixture, either way, it’s worth a deeper dive.

Closing Thoughts

There you have it, folks. A solid pick in the Eredivisie and two teasers in leagues where the model’s found some hidden value. If you’re keen to explore these selections further, head on over to the signals page. It’s got all the juicy details you need to make an informed choice. Happy punting!