Value Selections: 9 May, Brentford Could Have City Stunned
The Main Pick
Alright, mates, let's crack on with today's gem. We're kicking off with the Premier League this Saturday, 9 May at 17:30, and it's Manchester City versus Brentford. Now, I'll be honest, City are usually the sort of team that makes you sit up and take notice. They’ve got the firepower, the pedigree, and the home advantage. But, let me tell you, the price on Brentford to nick this one looks absolutely barking.
See, our models are having none of City's usual nonsense. They've given Brentford a 38.2% chance of walking away with the three points, which is a fair bit higher than the 35.3% they've given City. It's not just a hunch, both models are singing from the same hymn sheet here. And that's no small feat. The fair odds our primary model calculates for a Brentford win? A mere 2.62. Yet, the bookies are offering 7.5. That’s a difference of +186.2% value for the taking. Quite the gap, eh?
Now, let’s break it down without getting too clinical. The models are predicting City to score around 1.33 goals and Brentford to hit the net about 1.44 times. That’s not a massive gulf, but it’s there. And when you consider that the probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) sits at 55.6% and over 2.5 goals at 51.8%, it’s clear that this is a game that’s likely to have a few surprises.
When you look at City's recent home form, two wins, one draw, and one loss, they're not exactly setting the world alight. And while they’re averaging 1.75 goals scored at home, they’re also conceding 1.5 per game. Brentford, on the other hand, have been a bit of a mixed bag on the road, with one win, two draws, and one loss in their last four away games. They’re scoring about 1.25 goals and conceding the same. It’s not a fortress by any stretch, but it’s not a death trap either.
So, what’s the takeaway? The market price of 7.5 on Brentford looks like a joke when you consider the model’s fair price of 2.62. If the models are right, this could be a classic David versus Goliath story.
Also Worth Watching
Pick 2: Ligue 2
There’s something brewing in Ligue 2 that our models have spotted. The away team might just have a sneaky chance this weekend. Keep an eye on it, there’s value to be found.
Pick 3: Serie A
Serie A has another cracker where the home team could be undervalued. It’s worth taking a closer look to see if you can spot the edge.