Value Selections: 2 May, Levante Undervalued in La Liga

The Main Pick

Alright, lads and lasses, let’s crack on with today's main pick. We’re in La Liga, kicking off on Saturday 2 May at 13:00. Now, I’ve got a sneaky feeling about this one, and it’s all about Levante. I know, I know, they’re the away team, and you’re probably thinking, "Away games, eh? Not my cup of tea." But stick with me, and you’ll see why the model’s got its eye on Levante.

Let’s get the numbers out of the way first. Both our models are singing from the same hymn sheet here, giving Levante a 50.9% win probability. Villarreal are at 20.6%, and a draw? The models reckon that’s got a 26.9% chance. So, it’s not a nailed-on win, but the price looks wrong. The model’s fair odds for a Levante win are 1.96, but the bookies are offering 4.33. That’s a gap of +120.4% value, folks. That’s like finding a tenner in your jacket pocket after a night out.

Now, let’s break it down. The models are predicting Levante to score 1.71 expected goals (sG) compared to Villarreal’s 0.75. Think of it like this: if you’re at the pub and you bet on who’s more likely to score when the pub quiz starts, and you’ve got the team with the better darts player, you’re onto a winner. Also, there’s a 50% chance both teams will score (BTTS), and a 45.8% chance there’ll be over 2.5 goals in total. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a good shout.

Villarreal have been on fire at home recently, with four wins from their last four games. They’re averaging 2.25 goals a game and conceding just 1. But Levante? They’ve been all over the place on the road, with two wins, two losses, and two draws. They’re scoring just 0.25 goals a game away from home. But here’s the kicker: their expected goals (sG) suggest they should be doing better. It’s like they’re a footballer who’s got the moves but can’t finish.

So, why the big value on Levante? It’s the mismatch between their actual away form and what the models predict. They’re scoring fewer goals than Villarreal but should be scoring more. It’s a classic value bet. And with the market price at 4.33 and the model’s fair price at 1.96, that’s a juicy opportunity. It’s like betting on your mate to win a pub quiz when everyone else is betting on the bloke who drinks a pint before he answers.

Also Worth Watching

Alright, now for the teasers. We’ve got one in League Two where the model’s favouring the away team. It’s not a certainty, but the model sees something the market might be overlooking. Keep an eye on it.

Then, there’s another one in La Liga, again with the model tipping the away team. It’s not as strong as our main pick, but there’s a hint of value there. It’s worth a closer look if you’re the curious type.

Check Out the Signals Page

So, there you have it. If you’re looking for value, Levante’s the pick. And if you’re after a bit of a punt, those teasers might just be your thing. Check the signals page for all the details.