Value Selections: 25 April, Bologna Have a Crack at Roma
The Main Pick
Alright, mates, let’s kick things off with a cracker from Serie A this Saturday. Kick-off's at 5pm sharp, and it's Bologna at home against AS Roma. Now, the model’s putting its money on Bologna, and let me tell you, the price looks like a right bargain.
You see, when the numbers say Bologna's got a 39.5% chance of nicking the three points, and the bookies are offering 3.4 for that outcome, whilst our model reckons it’s worth a solid 2.53, you’ve got to take notice. That’s a 34.3% value boost, not just a little something, but a proper opportunity.
Both our models are singing from the same hymn sheet here. They’re saying Bologna’s the team to back. Our primary model gives Bologna a decent 39.5% chance to win, with a 24.9% draw probability and a 34.1% chance for Roma to nick it. It’s not a nailed-on win, but it’s certainly not a long shot.
Now, let’s break it down. Our sG (signal goals) suggests Bologna should net around 1.5 goals, while Roma’s expected to chip in with 1.31. It’s a tight game, then, with a solid 55% chance of both teams scoring, and just nudging over 50% for there to be more than 2.5 goals in total.
Bologna’s been playing some decent stuff at home, with a mixed bag of results recently. They’ve won a couple, drawn one, and lost twice, averaging a goal a game for and against. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Roma, on the other hand, haven’t exactly been the away team to beat, with no wins in their last five on the road, scoring just over a goal a game and conceding nearly two and a half.
So there you have it. The bookies have Bologna at 3.4, but the model’s fair price is 2.53. That’s a gap that shouts out “value” loud enough to wake the neighbours.
Also Worth Watching
Pick 2: Eredivisie, the home team’s got a bit of a knack for winning at home, and it’s not just the usual suspects. They’ve been sneaking wins where perhaps they shouldn’t have, and it’s got the model taking notice.
Pick 3: Premier League, the away team’s got a bit of a history of pulling surprises on the road. They’re not the biggest of favourites, but the model’s seen something that’s got it leaning their way.