Value Selections: 19 April, Arsenal Undervalued at the Etihad

The Main Pick

Alright, mates, let’s crack on with today’s value selections. We’ve got a corker for you this Sunday. Premier League action with Manchester City hosting Arsenal at the Etihad on Sunday, 19 April at 16:30. Now, I know what you’re thinking: City at home, Arsenal away, it’s got to be City, right? But here’s the kicker, the model’s favouring Arsenal to win this one. And let me tell you, the price looks all sorts of wrong.

The models are having a right old chinwag, and they’ve both agreed that Arsenal’s got a solid chance of nicking it. The primary model’s got Arsenal’s win probability at 45.3%, with City at 28.5% and a draw at 24.1%. That’s not a certainty, but it’s a decent crack, wouldn’t you say? The model’s fair odds for an Arsenal win are 2.21, while the bookies are offering 4. That’s a value opportunity of over 80%. It’s like finding a tenner in your jacket pocket after a night out, you’re bound to have a smile on your face.

Now, let’s break it down. The sG (signal goals) for this one’s got Manchester City at 1.14 and Arsenal at 1.76. That’s more goals expected from Arsenal, which is quite the switch from what we usually see. The BTTS probability is sitting at 55.2%, so we’re likely to see goals at both ends. And with an over 2.5 probability of 51.2%, we could be in for a bit of a barnstormer.

Let’s talk form. Manchester City’s been up and down at home recently. They’ve had a mix of results, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 4 games. They’re averaging 2 goals a game but also conceding 1.25. It’s a bit of a mixed bag. Arsenal, on the other hand, have been the picture of consistency on the road. 3 wins, 2 draws, and no losses in their last 5 away games. They’re scoring 1.8 goals a game and conceding just 0.8. That away form is as solid as a brick outhouse.

So, there you have it. The market’s got City at 4, but the model’s fair price for Arsenal is 2.21. That’s a gap that screams value. It’s like getting a pint of your favourite pint for half the price at the pub quiz, you’re onto a winner.

Also Worth Watching

The Segunda División’s got something cooking, with the model favouring the away team in one of the fixtures. Keep an eye on that one, there’s a good chance the bookies have got it wrong.

And over in the Jupiler Pro League, the model’s spotted another opportunity with the away team. It’s worth taking a closer look and seeing if the bookies have missed the mark.

Check the Signals Page

Got your eye on some value? Head over to the signals page for all the juicy details on today’s selections.