Value Bets: 10 April — The Price Looks Wrong on Wolves

The Main Pick

There's not much between these two teams in terms of the model prediction, but the price in the markets doesn't reflect that.

Both models have independently agreed that Wolves have the edge in this fixture. The primary model breaks it down with West Ham at 35.2%, a draw at 26.7%, and Wolves at 37%. The signal goals (sG) also lean slightly in Wolves' favour, with 1.31 expected goals compared to West Ham's 1.25. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) sits at 35.7%, and over 2.5 goals is expected with a probability of 41.5%.

West Ham have had a mixed bag of results at home recently. They've managed a win against Sunderland, drawn with Manchester United and Bournemouth, and also drew with Manchester City. Their home form shows 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses in the last 4 games, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Wolves, on the other hand, have been less consistent on the road, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 4 away games, scoring 0.5 goals per game and conceding 1.25.

The market price for a Wolves win is 4.5, while our models calculate the fair odds at 2.7. That's a significant gap of +66.7% value, making this a compelling opportunity.

Also Worth Watching

In the Segunda División, our model has spotted a potential edge for the away team. They've been analysing the form and stats, and it looks like the away side might be undervalued.

Over in the Superliga, another away team has caught our model's attention. There's a hint that the away side might have an edge that the market hasn't fully recognised.

Be sure to check the signals page for all of today's value bets.