Value Bets: 5 April — AEK Athens FC Undervalued on the Road

This Sunday, we've got a juicy Super League 1 fixture where Olympiakos Piraeus host AEK Athens FC. The kick-off is set for 19:00, and my models are buzzing about AEK Athens FC. Now, I know Olympiakos Piraeus have been a force at home, but the price on AEK Athens FC to win feels off. With a win probability of 51.9%, the model clearly sees value in the away side.

Both models independently agree that AEK Athens FC are the ones to back in this match. The numbers back this up: Olympiakos Piraeus have a 25% chance of winning, a draw is at 22.9%, and AEK Athens FC lead the pack at 51.9%. The signal goals (sG) paint a similar picture, with AEK Athens FC expected to score 1.79 goals compared to Olympiakos Piraeus' 1.12. The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) is 51.8%, and over 2.5 goals is expected with a 53.5% chance.

Olympiakos Piraeus have had a mixed bag at home lately, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games. They're averaging just 0.4 goals per home game, and conceding 0.6. Their recent games saw them struggle against Panathinaikos and Bayer Leverkusen but bounce back with a solid win over Panetolikos. On the other hand, AEK Athens FC have been in fine form on the road, with two wins, three draws, and no losses in their last five away games. They're averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded. Their recent form is impressive, with wins against Panserraikos and Celje, and solid draws against PAOK and Atromitos.

Now, let's talk value. The market price for AEK Athens FC to win is 4.33, while the model's fair price is just 1.93. That's a gap of +124.7% — the price looks seriously wrong. If the models are right, backing AEK Athens FC could be a smart move.

Also Worth Watching

There's something brewing in La Liga that my models are keen on. The home side might just have an edge in this one, so keep an eye out for that fixture.

In Serie A, the away team could have the upper hand. It's one to watch if you're looking for an underdog story.

As always, check the signals page for all of today's value bets.