Season Overview
The UEFA Europa League 2025/2026 season saw a total of 247 fixtures analyzed, with 208 fixtures producing valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate across these fixtures was 65.4%, indicating a relatively balanced performance from our predictive models.
Signal Performance
Home Signals
- ★★★: 29 bets, 25 won (86.2% hit rate), 1 draw
- ★★: 64 bets, 43 won (67.2% hit rate), 12 draws
- ★: 31 bets, 17 won (54.8% hit rate), 7 draws
Overall, home signals had a hit rate of 68.5%.
Away Signals
- ★★★: 19 bets, 16 won (84.2% hit rate), 2 draws
- ★★: 47 bets, 26 won (55.3% hit rate), 8 draws
- ★: 18 bets, 10 won (55.6% hit rate), 4 draws
Away signals had a lower overall hit rate of 61.9%.
High-star signals (★★★) performed best across both home and away fixtures, with over 80% hit rates. This suggests that higher confidence signals were more accurate than lower confidence ones.
Match Winner P&L
Backing Every Signal
- Bets: 73
- Wins: 43 (58.9%)
- P&L: +11.19 units
- ROI: +15.33%
Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)
- Bets: 20
- Wins: 9 (45.0%)
- P&L: +9.20 units
- ROI: +46.00%
Backing every signal resulted in a positive P&L and ROI, but filtering to value bets showed a significantly higher ROI, indicating that selecting higher edge bets can meaningfully improve profitability.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|-------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 6 | 33.3%| 6 bets | -2.30 | -38.3% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 15 | 40.0%| 15 bets | -3.96 | -26.4% | 0 | - | - |
| 50-55% | 30 | 40.0%| 30 bets | -8.62 | -28.7% | 7 bets | -2.67 | -38.1% |
| 55-60% | 21 | 47.6%| 21 bets | -3.28 | -15.6% | 11 bets | +1.99 | +18.1% |
| 60-65% | 9 | 33.3%| 9 bets | -3.99 | -44.3% | 6 bets | -4.09 | -68.2% |
| 65-70% | 0 | - | 0 bets | - | - | 0 | - | - |
| 70%+ | 0 | - | 0 bets | - | - | 0 | - | - |
Overall, the actual rate was 48.2%, compared to the V12 model average of 52.8%.
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|-------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 18 | 38.9%| 18 bets | -6.27 | -34.8% | 1 bet | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| 45-50% | 21 | 33.3%| 21 bets | -9.23 | -44.0% | 3 bets | -3.00 | -100.0% |
| 50-55% | 24 | 54.2%| 24 bets | -0.90 | -3.8% | 12 bets | -1.65 | -13.8% |
| 55-60% | 11 | 36.4%| 11 bets | -3.32 | -30.2% | 10 bets | -2.32 | -23.2% |
| 60-65% | 6 | 50.0%| 6 bets | -0.42 | -7.0% | 5 bets | -0.95 | -19.0% |
| 65-70% | 1 | 0.0% | 1 bet | -1.00 | -100.0% | 0 | - | - |
| 70%+ | 0 | - | 0 bets | - | - | 0 | - | - |
Overall, the actual rate was 51.8%, compared to the V12 model average of 50.4%.
Team Analysis
Over-performers
- SC Braga: 37 goals, xG 25.9 (+11.10 vs model), 13W/3D across 19 fixtures
- FC Midtjylland: 32 goals, xG 22.6 (+9.43 vs model), 12W/2D across 15 fixtures
- Aston Villa: 28 goals, xG 20.2 (+7.81 vs model), 12W/1D across 15 fixtures
- Celtic: 15 goals, xG 9.9 (+5.07 vs model), 4W/2D across 10 fixtures
- PAOK: 24 goals, xG 19.9 (+4.12 vs model), 5W/4D across 14 fixtures
Under-performers
- Sturm Graz: 5 goals, xG 7.1 (-2.10 vs model), 2W/1D across 8 fixtures
- Bologna: 17 goals, xG 19.0 (-2.03 vs model), 6W/6D across 14 fixtures
- Lille: 12 goals, xG 13.9 (-1.91 vs model), 4W/1D across 12 fixtures
Signal Hit Rates
- FC Porto: 5/5 signals correct (100.0%)
- BSC Young Boys: 3/3 signals correct (100.0%)
- Celtic: 3/3 signals correct (100.0%)
- Aston Villa: 9/10 signals correct (90.0%)
- FC Midtjylland: 11/13 signals correct (84.6%)
- SC Freiburg: 7/9 signals correct (77.8%)
- SC Braga: 10/13 signals correct (76.9%)
- Utrecht: 3/4 signals correct (75.0%)
SC Braga and FC Midtjylland were notable over-performers in terms of both goals and signal accuracy.
Players to Follow
Top Scorers
- Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest): 7 goals, 1 assists, 16/24 shots on target, 13 apps, 757 mins
- Petar Stanić (Ludogorets): 7 goals, 1 assists, 14/20 shots on target, 10 apps, 858 mins
- Antony (Real Betis): 6 goals, 3 assists, 13/25 shots on target, 11 apps, 788 mins
Top Assisters
- Deniz Undav (VfB Stuttgart): 6 assists, 3 goals, 765 mins
- Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa): 5 assists, 3 goals, 999 mins
- Emiliano Buendía (Aston Villa): 5 assists, 4 goals, 906 mins
Players to Watch
- Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest): 16/24 on target, 7 goals, 13 apps
- Caio Vidal (Ludogorets): 14/25 on target, 0 goals, 10 apps
- Petar Stanić (Ludogorets): 14/20 on target, 7 goals, 10 apps
Igor Jesus and Petar Stanić showed exceptional shot accuracy and goal-scoring ability, making them key players to watch for the next season.
Key Takeaways
- High-star signals (★★★) performed best, with over 80% hit rates.
- Filtering to value bets significantly improved ROI, showing the importance of edge in betting.
- Teams like SC Braga and FC Midtjylland over-performed both in goals and signal accuracy.
- Players like Igor Jesus and Petar Stanić demonstrated excellent shot accuracy and goal-scoring potential, making them worth tracking in the next season.