UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/2026 Season Analysis

Season Overview

The UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/2026 season was an intriguing period of competition, with 308 fixtures analysed and 264 fixtures producing valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate stood at 63.6%, indicating a solid performance by our predictive models.

Signal Performance

Home Signals

★★★: 36 bets, 29 wins (80.6% hit rate), 3 draws
★★: 77 bets, 49 wins (63.6% hit rate), 18 draws
★: 52 bets, 27 wins (51.9% hit rate), 12 draws
Overall Home Signals: 105/165 (63.6%)

Away Signals

★★★: 14 bets, 10 wins (71.4% hit rate)
★★: 51 bets, 26 wins (51.0% hit rate), 14 draws
★: 34 bets, 13 wins (38.2% hit rate), 9 draws
Overall Away Signals: 49/99 (49.5%)

The ★★★ home signals demonstrated the highest hit rate, while ★★★ away signals also performed well, highlighting the strength of our highest-confidence predictions.

Match Winner P&L

Backing All Signals

Bets: 67
Wins: 35 (52.2%)
P&L: -6.15 units
ROI: -9.18%

Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)

Bets: 12
Wins: 5 (41.7%)
P&L: +1.55 units
ROI: +12.92%

Filtering to value bets provided a meaningful edge, transforming an overall loss into a modest profit.

BTTS by Probability Bracket

|---------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|----------|

| <45% | 6 | 33.3%| 6 | -2.34 | -39.0% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 12 | 25.0%| 12 | -6.49 | -54.1% | 3 | -3.00 | -100.0% |

| 50-55% | 17 | 58.8%| 17 | +1.16 | 6.8% | 4 | +0.00 | 0.0% |

| 55-60% | 9 | 44.4%| 9 | -1.77 | -19.7% | 6 | -0.34 | -5.7% |

| 60-65% | 1 | 0.0% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |

| TOTALS | 45 | 47.7%| 45 | -10.44 | -23.2% | 14 | -4.34 | -31.0% |

Overall Actual Rate vs V12 Model Avg: Actual: 47.7%, Model: 51.0%

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

|---------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|----------|

| <45% | 14 | 42.9%| 14 | -3.28 | -23.4% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 16 | 50.0%| 16 | -1.00 | -6.3% | 3 | -0.95 | -31.7% |

| 50-55% | 7 | 57.1%| 7 | +0.53 | 7.6% | 3 | +1.20 | 40.0% |

| 55-60% | 7 | 42.9%| 7 | -1.10 | -15.7% | 5 | -0.80 | -16.0% |

| 60-65% | 1 | 100.0%| 1 | +0.67 | 67.0% | 1 | +0.67 | 67.0% |

| TOTALS | 45 | 53.6%| 45 | -4.18 | -9.3% | 12 | +0.12 | 1.0% |

Overall Actual Rate vs V12 Model Avg: Actual: 53.6%, Model: 48.0%

Team Analysis

Over-performers

AZ Alkmaar: 34 goals, xG 22.1 (+11.88 vs model), 11W/3D across 17 fixtures
Celje: 26 goals, xG 18.0 (+7.98 vs model), 9W/1D across 14 fixtures
Universitatea Craiova: 21 goals, xG 13.0 (+7.96 vs model), 6W/1D across 11 fixtures
AEK Athens FC: 29 goals, xG 21.1 (+7.92 vs model), 8W/5D across 15 fixtures
Sparta Praha: 23 goals, xG 15.9 (+7.12 vs model), 8W/1D across 13 fixtures

Under-performers

Shkendija: 4 goals, xG 6.1 (-2.08 vs model), 2W/1D across 8 fixtures
Neman: 3 goals, xG 4.8 (-1.76 vs model), 1W/1D across 5 fixtures
Aberdeen: 3 goals, xG 3.7 (-0.72 vs model), 0W/2D across 6 fixtures

Signal Hit Rates by Team

Samsunspor: 5/6 signals correct (83.3%)
Sparta Praha: 8/10 signals correct (80.0%)
Universitatea Craiova: 4/5 signals correct (80.0%)
Fiorentina: 7/9 signals correct (77.8%)
Raków Częstochowa: 7/9 signals correct (77.8%)
Jagiellonia: 5/7 signals correct (71.4%)
Rayo Vallecano: 6/9 signals correct (66.7%)
Rosenborg: 2/3 signals correct (66.7%)

Players to Follow

Top Scorers

Franko Kovačević (Celje): 8 goals, 0 assists, 19/25 shots on target, 8 apps, 662 mins
Mikael Ishak (Lech Poznan): 8 goals, 1 assist, 18/27 shots on target, 10 apps, 742 mins
Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace): 8 goals, 0 assists, 16/32 shots on target, 13 apps, 1103 mins

Top Assisters

Amor Layouni (BK Hacken): 5 assists, 0 goals, 451 mins
Carlo Holse (Samsunspor): 5 assists, 2 goals, 875 mins
Isi Palazón (Rayo Vallecano): 4 assists, 2 goals, 749 mins

Players to Watch

Sven Mijnans (AZ Alkmaar): 20/28 on target, 6 goals, 15 apps
Franko Kovačević (Celje): 19/25 on target, 8 goals, 8 apps
Troy Parrott (AZ Alkmaar): 18/30 on target, 7 goals, 14 apps

Key Takeaways

The ★★★ home signals showed the highest hit rate, indicating the reliability of our highest-confidence predictions.
Filtering to value bets significantly improved ROI, highlighting the importance of selective betting.
AZ Alkmaar and Celje were notable over-performers, exceeding their expected goals significantly.
Sven Mijnans, Franko Kovačević, and Troy Parrott are players to watch for their shot efficiency and goal-scoring capabilities.

UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/2026 Season Review