Season Overview

The UEFA Champions League 2025/2026 has concluded with an analysis of 222 fixtures, of which 203 had valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate across all fixtures was 65.2%, indicating a solid performance from the predictive models used.

Signal Performance

In terms of signal performance, the data reveals that signals with a ★★★ rating performed best, with a 93.1% hit rate for home signals and 84.6% for away signals. Here is a breakdown of performance by star rating:

- ★★★: 27 wins out of 29 bets (93.1%)

- ★★: 35 wins out of 62 bets (56.5%)

- ★: 13 wins out of 24 bets (54.2%)

- ★★★: 11 wins out of 13 bets (84.6%)

- ★★: 28 wins out of 59 bets (47.5%)

- ★: 3 wins out of 16 bets (18.8%)

Overall, the ★★★ signals outperformed other ratings, suggesting that higher-confidence signals were more accurate.

Match Winner P&L

Betting on all available signals with a flat stake of 1 unit resulted in 49 wins out of 82 bets, yielding a P&L of +14.29 units and an ROI of +17.43%. Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) resulted in 15 wins out of 26 bets, with a P&L of +19.68 units and an ROI of +75.69%. Here are the full details:

- Bets: 82

- Wins: 49

- Win rate: 59.8%

- P&L: +14.29 units

- ROI: +17.43%

- Bets: 26

- Wins: 15

- Win rate: 57.7%

- P&L: +19.68 units

- ROI: +75.69%

Filtering to value bets provided a significantly higher ROI, indicating that selective betting based on edge can be highly profitable.

BTTS by Probability Bracket

Here is a full breakdown of BTTS performance by probability bracket:

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|---------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 2 | 100% | 2 | +1.40 | 70.0% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 2 | 100% | 2 | +2.47 | 123.5% | 1 | +1.80 | 180.0% |

| 50-55% | 16 | 43.8%| 16 | -4.53 | -28.3% | 2 | -2.00 | -100.0% |

| 55-60% | 30 | 63.3%| 30 | +0.84 | 2.8% | 8 | +1.39 | 17.4% |

| 60-65% | 23 | 52.2%| 23 | -4.73 | -20.6% | 4 | +1.17 | 29.3% |

| 65-70% | 6 | 66.7%| 6 | -0.58 | -9.7% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |

| 70%+ | 1 | 100% | 1 | +0.30 | 30.0% | 0 | - | - |

| Total | 80 | | 80 | -4.83 | -6.0% | 16 | +1.36 | 8.5% |

The actual BTTS rate was 53.6%, compared to the V12 model average of 58.2%.

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

Here is the breakdown of Over 2.5 goals performance by probability bracket:

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|---------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 3 | 100% | 3 | +2.50 | 83.3% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 1 | 100% | 1 | +0.57 | 57.0% | 0 | - | - |

| 50-55% | 24 | 45.8%| 23 | -5.84 | -25.4% | 3 | -3.00 | -100.0% |

| 55-60% | 18 | 66.7%| 18 | +0.00 | 0.0% | 4 | -1.80 | -45.0% |

| 60-65% | 20 | 60.0%| 20 | -1.81 | -9.1% | 5 | +0.26 | 5.2% |

| 65-70% | 9 | 88.9%| 9 | +1.38 | 15.3% | 0 | - | - |

| 70%+ | 5 | 40.0%| 5 | -2.20 | -44.0% | 3 | -1.56 | -52.0% |

| Total | 79 | | 79 | -5.40 | -6.8% | 15 | -6.10 | -40.7%|

The actual Over 2.5 goals rate was 62.2%, compared to the V12 model average of 58.6%.

Team Analysis

Several teams over-performed compared to their expected goals (xG):

Under-performers included:

Signal hit rates for teams with ≥3 signals:

Players to Follow

The top scorers and assisters for the season were:

1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): 15 goals, 1 assist, 30/43 shots on target, 12 apps, 912 mins

2. Harry Kane (Bayern München): 14 goals, 2 assists, 25/36 shots on target, 14 apps, 1039 mins

3. Julián Álvarez (Atletico Madrid): 10 goals, 4 assists, 22/37 shots on target, 15 apps, 1240 mins

1. Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint Germain): 6 assists, 1 goal, 1034 mins

2. Michael Olise (Bayern München): 6 assists, 5 goals, 1081 mins

3. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint Germain): 6 assists, 10 goals, 1057 mins

Players to Watch:

Key Takeaways