Udinese: Serie A 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

The model has Udinese finishing 10th in the projected table. The expected finishing position is 11.4, with a 0.03% chance of winning the title, a 1.46% chance of making the top four, and a 5.08% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 48.7. These projections are driven by an attack strength multiplier of 0.94, which is below the league average of 1.00, and a defence multiplier of 1.04, which is slightly above average (lower is better in defence). The attacking Elo rating is 1587, whilst the defensive Elo stands at 1648. This combination of metrics suggests a team that is solid but unspectacular, with a slight edge in defence over attack.

In attack

Udinese's attack is rated below the league average with a strength multiplier of 0.94. Keinan Davis was the top scorer last season with 10 goals in 29 appearances, contributing 35% of the team's goals. Nicolò Zaniolo led in assists with 5 and shot volume with 45, appearing in 31 games. Despite these contributions, no player emerged as a high-volume scorer, which is a concern. Zaniolo's shot volume is promising, but his conversion rate remains a question mark. The attack lacks a consistent, high-output forward, which is reflected in the below-average multiplier.

In defence

On the defensive side, Udinese fares slightly better with a defence multiplier of 1.04, indicating a unit that concedes fewer goals than the average Serie A team. Sandi Lovrić leads in defensive actions with 5.55 per 90 minutes, followed by Matteo Palma with 4.29 and Oumar Solet with 4.17. These players form a solid backbone, contributing to the team's defensive resilience. The defensive Elo rating of 1648 further supports this view, suggesting that whilst not outstanding, Udinese's defence is competent and reliable.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw some adjustments that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.93 to 0.94, a minor improvement. Mërgim Vojvoda arrived and contributed 2 goals last season, offering a slight boost. The notable departure was Arthur Atta, who scored 4 goals last season, which slightly weakened the attack. On the defensive side, the multiplier improved from 1.09 to 1.04, a positive shift. James Abankwah arrived, bringing 85 defensive actions, which strengthens the backline. The departure of Thomas Kristensen had a marginal impact. Overall, the changes were incremental but favourable.

Weaknesses and risks

The main weaknesses for Udinese lie in their attack. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average pose significant risks. If Keinan Davis or Nicolò Zaniolo fail to replicate or improve their performances, the team could struggle to score enough goals to climb the table. The defence, whilst solid, may not be enough to offset these attacking limitations. The model's projections reflect these concerns, placing Udinese in mid-table with a clear warning about their reliance on a few key players in attack.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Mërgim Vojvoda (2g), out Arthur Atta (4g)
• Defence: in James Abankwah (85 def actions), out Thomas Kristensen

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._