Where the model has them
The model has Twente finishing around 3rd in the Eredivisie this season. It's giving them a 4.66% chance of the title, a 40.81% chance of the top four, and just a 0.53% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, along with their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.09, which is a touch above the league average of 1.00, showing a solid but not spectacular attacking side. The defence multiplier is 0.83, which is lower than the average of 1.00, indicating a stronger-than-average defence that's expected to concede fewer goals. Their attacking Elo of 1611 and defensive Elo of 1623 also reflect a balanced side with a slight edge on the defensive side.
In attack
Twente's attack is decent but not explosive. The attack strength multiplier of 1.09 shows they're slightly above average in creating chances and scoring goals. Kristian Hlynsson led the goalscoring last season with 9 goals in 32 appearances, whilst Younes Taha was the top assist provider and shot volume leader with 9 assists and 69 shots. Hlynsson also chipped in with 4 assists, making him a key attacking threat. Despite these contributions, no player hit double figures for goals last season, which is a slight concern. Wout Weghorst's arrival, with 9 goals last season, should help here, but Twente still lack a proven high-volume scorer.
In defence
Defensively, Twente look solid. The defence multiplier of 0.83 is below 1.00, showing they're expected to concede fewer goals than the average side. Bart van Rooij led the way with 104 tackles won, and he's also a defensive-actions machine with 4.48 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes. Daouda Weidmann and Ramiz Zerrouki also contribute heavily in defensive actions, with 4.09 and 3.73 per 90 respectively. This defensive strength is a key factor in the model's positive projection for Twente.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. Offensively, the arrival of Wout Weghorst, who scored 9 goals last season, bumped the attack multiplier from 1.08 to 1.09. Defensively, the addition of Aske Adelgaard, who had 66 defensive actions last season, improved the defence multiplier from 0.78 to 0.83. Ricky van Wolfswinkel's departure (8 goals last season) and Mats Rots' exit had minor impacts, but the overall effect of the window was positive for Twente's projected performance.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Twente's projection is their lack of a proven high-volume scorer. Kristian Hlynsson's 9 goals last season were the best in the squad, but that's not a volume that can be relied upon to drag the team into the top four consistently. Weghorst's addition helps, but if he doesn't hit the ground running, Twente could struggle to score enough goals to match their solid defence. This is the weakness the model is flagging, and it's something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Kristian Hlynsson | 9 | 0.28 | 28% |
| Assists | Younes Taha | 9 | 0.28 | 25% |
| Shots | Younes Taha | 69 | 2.16 | 91% |
| Tackles won | Bart van Rooij | 104 | 3.25 | 94% |
| Fouls drawn | Daan Rots | 47 | 1.42 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Naci Ünüvar | 16 | 0.94 | 71% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Bart van Rooij | 4.48 | 32 |
| Daouda Weidmann | 4.09 | 16 |
| Ramiz Zerrouki | 3.73 | 31 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Wout Weghorst (9g), out Ricky van Wolfswinkel (8g)
- Defence: in Aske Adelgaard (66 def actions), out Mats Rots
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._