Where the model has them
The model has SV Darmstadt 98 finishing around 8th this season, with a 1.68% chance of winning the league, an 18.04% chance of making the top four, and a 5.44% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 48.4. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the multipliers and Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.94, meaning their attack is below the league average. Their defence multiplier is 0.88, which is better than average, indicating they concede fewer goals. The attacking Elo is 1552 and the defending Elo is 1541, both solid but not outstanding.
In attack
Darmstadt's attack is rated below the league average with a strength multiplier of 0.94. Last season, their top scorer was Matej Maglica with 6 goals in 29 appearances. Hiroki Akiyama chipped in with 3 goals and 1 assist, whilst Lance Duijvestijn, who played in 89% of games, had 40 shots. Despite these contributions, no player emerged as a high-volume scorer, with Maglica's 6 goals being the best output. The departure of Isac Lidberg, who scored 17 goals last season, further weakens the attack.
In defence
On the defensive side, Darmstadt looks slightly stronger with a defence multiplier of 0.88, meaning they are expected to concede fewer goals than the average team. Key players in defence include Kai Klefisch, who won 54 tackles in 29 appearances. Matthias Bader leads in defensive actions per 90 minutes with 8.32, followed by Matondo-Merveille Papela with 4.29 and Matej Maglica with 3.92. This suggests a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that impacted the model's numbers. Lance Duijvestijn arrived, contributing both in attack with 3 goals last season and in defence with 64 defensive actions. However, the loss of Isac Lidberg, who scored 17 goals last season, significantly weakened the attack. Defensively, the departure of Marco Richter was somewhat offset by Duijvestijn's arrival. Overall, the attack multiplier dropped from 1.11 to 0.94, whilst the defence multiplier improved slightly from 0.95 to 0.88.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses the model sees are the lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. The net loss of attacking output from the transfer window, particularly the departure of Isac Lidberg, compounds this risk. If Darmstadt fails to find a reliable source of goals, their projected mid-table finish could be under threat.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Matej Maglica | 6 | 0.21 | 17% |
| Assists | Fabian Nürnberger | 2 | 0.11 | 11% |
| Shots | Lance Duijvestijn | 40 | 1.43 | 89% |
| Tackles won | Kai Klefisch | 54 | 1.86 | 76% |
| Fouls drawn | Luca Marseiler | 52 | 2 | 85% |
| Fouls committed | Hiroki Akiyama | 43 | 1.39 | 77% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Matthias Bader | 8.32 | 10 |
| Matondo-Merveille Papela | 4.29 | 26 |
| Matej Maglica | 3.92 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Lance Duijvestijn (3g), out Isac Lidberg (17g)
- Defence: in Lance Duijvestijn (64 def actions), out Marco Richter
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._