The model makes AEK Athens FC the title favourite, first in 36.4% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of PAOK on 30.0% and Panathinaikos on 20.4%. On expected points that is AEK Athens FC 54.4, PAOK 53.5, Panathinaikos 52.0. Four clubs finish in the top four more often than not: AEK Athens FC 96.2%, PAOK 94.7%, Panathinaikos 91.1%, Olympiakos Piraeus 86.3%.
At the other end, Volos NFC carries the highest relegation risk at 74.0%, then Kalamata on 44.7% and Levadiakos on 44.1%. The bottom club averages 20.9 points to AEK Athens FC's 54.4.
Here's the deal with this simulation: it's not a crystal ball, it's a scattergun. It takes where the season stands right now and fires off 20,000 different ways it could finish, keeping the points already won locked in. What you get is a spread of outcomes, not a single answer. It's great for seeing just how wide a club's potential finish could be, from top to bottom. But remember, it's blind to the chaos of an actual season: fixture piles, injuries, red cards, form swings. It's a tool, not a fortune teller. Use it to understand the range of possibilities, not as the final word. Since August, the picture's shifted, the model's changed its tune on a few clubs. It's worth a look, but don't mistake it for gospel.
What has changed since August
The pre-season projection was run before a ball was kicked. 35 matches later, these are the clubs the model has most changed its mind about. Movement is in expected finishing position, which is measured against the rest of the division, so it reflects a changed view rather than simply games being played.
Rising
- OFI up 4.0 places, expected points 24.4 to 34.7. 10 points from 5 games. Relegation risk down from 55.7% to 6.3%.
- Panetolikos up 2.7 places, expected points 26.2 to 32.8. 9 points from 5 games. Relegation risk down from 43.9% to 10.1%.
- Panathinaikos up 2.1 places, expected points 42.8 to 52.0. 15 points from 5 games. Title chance up from 2.9% to 20.4%. Relegation risk down from 0.6% to 0.0%.
- Kifisia up 0.9 places, expected points 26.1 to 28.0. 5 points from 5 games. Relegation risk down from 45.5% to 31.6%.
Falling
- Levadiakos down 3.5 places, expected points 35.8 to 25.8. 1 points from 5 games. Relegation risk up from 7.2% to 44.1%.
- Atromitos down 1.8 places, expected points 35.4 to 29.5. 2 points from 5 games. Relegation risk up from 7.3% to 21.4%.
- Kalamata down 1.8 places, expected points 31.1 to 25.7. 4 points from 5 games. Relegation risk up from 19.3% to 44.7%.
- Olympiakos Piraeus down 0.8 places, expected points 52.9 to 50.0. 10 points from 5 games. Title chance down from 30.7% to 12.7%.
- Iraklis 1908 down 0.7 places, expected points 31.1 to 28.6. 6 points from 5 games. Relegation risk up from 19.7% to 28.1%.
Compare with the full pre-season table, exactly as the model had it in August.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 36.43 | 27.62 | 19.96 | 12.25 | 2.84 | 0.65 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 54.4 | ||||
| PAOK | 29.98 | 26.65 | 22.67 | 15.38 | 3.81 | 1.12 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 53.5 | |||
| Panathinaikos | 20.38 | 24.22 | 25.40 | 21.10 | 6.45 | 1.75 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 52.0 | ||||
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 12.68 | 19.20 | 25.00 | 29.45 | 9.28 | 2.71 | 1.04 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 50.0 | ||
| Aris Thessalonikis | 0.40 | 1.60 | 4.34 | 11.30 | 29.99 | 19.19 | 12.35 | 8.14 | 5.03 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.19 | 0.59 | 0.24 | 38.9 |
| OFI | 0.11 | 0.44 | 1.42 | 4.13 | 16.20 | 19.69 | 16.43 | 12.69 | 9.80 | 7.23 | 5.51 | 3.49 | 2.05 | 0.79 | 34.7 |
| Panetolikos | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.67 | 2.74 | 11.33 | 15.96 | 15.83 | 13.99 | 11.82 | 9.74 | 7.71 | 5.58 | 3.14 | 1.35 | 32.8 |
| Atromitos | 0.03 | 0.17 | 1.18 | 5.83 | 9.70 | 12.22 | 13.38 | 12.89 | 12.06 | 11.14 | 9.38 | 7.41 | 4.59 | 29.5 | |
| Iraklis 1908 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.86 | 4.04 | 7.51 | 10.30 | 11.21 | 12.58 | 12.50 | 12.68 | 11.61 | 10.39 | 6.14 | 28.6 |
| Kifisia | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.70 | 3.48 | 6.57 | 9.15 | 10.82 | 12.04 | 13.05 | 12.44 | 12.55 | 11.17 | 7.86 | 28.0 | |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 2.51 | 5.41 | 7.98 | 9.75 | 11.06 | 12.26 | 12.93 | 13.56 | 13.16 | 10.96 | 26.7 | |
| Levadiakos | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 2.05 | 4.49 | 6.09 | 8.23 | 10.10 | 11.81 | 12.85 | 14.98 | 15.04 | 14.08 | 25.8 |
| Kalamata | 0.03 | 0.29 | 1.83 | 4.23 | 5.97 | 8.06 | 10.04 | 11.54 | 13.28 | 14.71 | 16.51 | 13.50 | 25.7 | ||
| Volos NFC | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 1.03 | 1.79 | 2.94 | 4.43 | 6.31 | 9.16 | 12.94 | 20.54 | 40.48 | 20.9 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
The table above is where the division actually stands after 35 matches, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 147 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._