Where the model has them
The model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth to finish around 18th in the 2. Bundesliga this season, with a 0.02% chance of winning the title, a 0.67% chance of making the top four, and a 53.44% chance of relegation. They're expected to accumulate 35.0 points. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.9, which is below the league average, and their defence multiplier of 1.32, which is above the average (meaning they're expected to concede more goals). Their attacking Elo is 1510, whilst their defending Elo sits at 1505, both indicating a tight balance but slightly favouring their defensive capabilities.
In attack
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack is rated below the league average with an attack strength multiplier of 0.9. Felix Klaus was the standout last season, contributing 8 goals and 7 assists in 28 appearances. He also took 55 shots, appearing in 89% of games. Despite his contributions, Klaus isn't a high-volume scorer, and the squad lacks a proven goal-getter. The top scorers in the squad are Felix Klaus with 8 goals and 7 assists, followed by Jannis Heuer with 3 goals, and Dennis Srbeny with 3 goals and 1 assist. This below-average attack strength is a key factor in the model's relegation projection.
In defence
On the defensive side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth has a defence multiplier of 1.32, which is worse than the league average. Their defensive-actions leaders include Gian-Luca Itter with 4.89 actions per 90 minutes, Paul Will with 4.33, and Jannis Heuer with 3.77. Paul Will notably won 45 tackles in 21 appearances. Whilst they have solid defensive players, the overall defence is still rated as leakier than average, adding to the concerns around their survival in the league.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that slightly impacted the model's projections. The arrival of Shinta Karl Appelkamp, who scored 2 goals last season, nudged the attack multiplier from 0.95 to 0.9. On the defensive side, the addition of Jannis Heuer, who contributed 97 defensive actions last season, improved the defence multiplier from 1.26 to 1.32. Notable departures include top scorer Noel Futkeu, who scored 20 goals last season, and defender Philipp Ziereis. These changes have had a marginal impact, but the overall outlook remains cautious.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses for SpVgg Greuther Fürth this season are their below-average attack and slightly above-average (worse) defence. They lack a high-volume scorer, relying heavily on Felix Klaus for goals and assists. Their defence, whilst solid in places, is still leakier than the league average. These factors combined significantly increase their risk of relegation, as reflected in the model's 53.44% chance of dropping down a division.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Felix Klaus | 8 | 0.29 | 25% |
| Assists | Felix Klaus | 7 | 0.25 | 21% |
| Shots | Felix Klaus | 55 | 1.96 | 89% |
| Tackles won | Paul Will | 45 | 2.14 | 95% |
| Fouls drawn | Felix Klaus | 50 | 1.79 | 75% |
| Fouls committed | Felix Klaus | 25 | 0.89 | 64% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Gian-Luca Itter | 4.89 | 21 |
| Paul Will | 4.33 | 21 |
| Jannis Heuer | 3.77 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Shinta Karl Appelkamp (2g), out Noel Futkeu (20g)
- Defence: in Jannis Heuer (97 def actions), out Philipp Ziereis
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._