Where the model has them
The model has Sparta Rotterdam finishing around 17th in the Eredivisie this season, with a 46.53% chance of relegation and a 0.31% shot at breaking into the top four. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength. Their attack multiplier is 0.74 (1.00 being the league average, so lower is worse), whilst their defence multiplier is 1.12 (1.00 being average, so higher is worse). Their attacking Elo is 1510 and defending Elo is 1574. This means they're expected to score less and concede more than the average team.
In attack
Sparta's attack is rated below the Eredivisie average, with a strength multiplier of 0.74. Last season, Shunsuke Mito was their top scorer with 7 goals in 24 appearances, which is 25% of their games. Mito also led in shot volume with 37 shots in 24 games, appearing in 79% of matches. Mitchell van Bergen provided 4 assists in 30 appearances, contributing to 13% of their games. The top scorers in the squad are Mito with 7 goals and 3 assists, Milan Zonneveld with 6 goals and 2 assists, and van Bergen with 3 goals and 4 assists. The model sees this attack as below average, lacking a proven high-volume scorer.
In defence
On the defensive side, Sparta's defence multiplier is 1.12, which is worse than the league average. Their defensive-actions leaders are Teo Quintero with 4.72 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Marvin Young with 4.59 per 90, and Lushendry Edward Martes with 4.4 per 90. Martes also won 32 tackles in just 13 appearances, showing up in 92% of games. Whilst they have some solid defensive players, the model rates their defence as a soft spot, likely to concede more than the average team.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts but nothing game-changing. The attack multiplier moved slightly from 0.75 to 0.74, and the defence from 1.09 to 1.12. The key attacking arrival was Milan Zonneveld, who scored 6 goals last season. They lost Tobias Lauritsen, their top scorer with 12 goals. Defensively, they gained Nick Verschuren, who had 122 defensive actions last season. They lost Joshua Kitolano. These changes had a marginal impact on the model's numbers, nudging the defence slightly weaker and the attack barely changed.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses the model sees are Sparta's below-average attack and leakier-than-average defence. They lack a proven high-volume scorer, with their top goal-getter last season netting just 7. Their defence, whilst having some strong individual performers, is rated worse than the league average. These factors combine to make relegation the biggest risk, with a 46.53% chance according to the model.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Shunsuke Mito | 7 | 0.29 | 25% |
| Assists | Mitchell van Bergen | 4 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Shunsuke Mito | 37 | 1.54 | 79% |
| Tackles won | Lushendry Edward Martes | 32 | 2.46 | 92% |
| Fouls drawn | Joel Ideho | 35 | 1.46 | 67% |
| Fouls committed | Lushendry Edward Martes | 14 | 1.08 | 77% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Teo Quintero | 4.72 | 30 |
| Marvin Young | 4.59 | 32 |
| Lushendry Edward Martes | 4.4 | 13 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Milan Zonneveld (6g), out Tobias Lauritsen (12g)
- Defence: in Nick Verschuren (122 def actions), out Joshua Kitolano
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._