Where the model has them

The model has Sparta Rotterdam finishing around 17th in the Eredivisie this season, with a 46.53% chance of relegation and a 0.31% shot at breaking into the top four. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength. Their attack multiplier is 0.74 (1.00 being the league average, so lower is worse), whilst their defence multiplier is 1.12 (1.00 being average, so higher is worse). Their attacking Elo is 1510 and defending Elo is 1574. This means they're expected to score less and concede more than the average team.

In attack

Sparta's attack is rated below the Eredivisie average, with a strength multiplier of 0.74. Last season, Shunsuke Mito was their top scorer with 7 goals in 24 appearances, which is 25% of their games. Mito also led in shot volume with 37 shots in 24 games, appearing in 79% of matches. Mitchell van Bergen provided 4 assists in 30 appearances, contributing to 13% of their games. The top scorers in the squad are Mito with 7 goals and 3 assists, Milan Zonneveld with 6 goals and 2 assists, and van Bergen with 3 goals and 4 assists. The model sees this attack as below average, lacking a proven high-volume scorer.

In defence

On the defensive side, Sparta's defence multiplier is 1.12, which is worse than the league average. Their defensive-actions leaders are Teo Quintero with 4.72 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Marvin Young with 4.59 per 90, and Lushendry Edward Martes with 4.4 per 90. Martes also won 32 tackles in just 13 appearances, showing up in 92% of games. Whilst they have some solid defensive players, the model rates their defence as a soft spot, likely to concede more than the average team.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw some shifts but nothing game-changing. The attack multiplier moved slightly from 0.75 to 0.74, and the defence from 1.09 to 1.12. The key attacking arrival was Milan Zonneveld, who scored 6 goals last season. They lost Tobias Lauritsen, their top scorer with 12 goals. Defensively, they gained Nick Verschuren, who had 122 defensive actions last season. They lost Joshua Kitolano. These changes had a marginal impact on the model's numbers, nudging the defence slightly weaker and the attack barely changed.

Weaknesses and risks

The main weaknesses the model sees are Sparta's below-average attack and leakier-than-average defence. They lack a proven high-volume scorer, with their top goal-getter last season netting just 7. Their defence, whilst having some strong individual performers, is rated worse than the league average. These factors combine to make relegation the biggest risk, with a 46.53% chance according to the model.

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Key players (last season)

CategoryPlayerTotalPer game1+ rate
GoalsShunsuke Mito70.2925%
AssistsMitchell van Bergen40.1313%
ShotsShunsuke Mito371.5479%
Tackles wonLushendry Edward Martes322.4692%
Fouls drawnJoel Ideho351.4667%
Fouls committedLushendry Edward Martes141.0877%

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

PlayerTackles+Int+Blocks /90Apps
Teo Quintero4.7230
Marvin Young4.5932
Lushendry Edward Martes4.413

Transfer impact (model)

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._