Season Overview
The 2025/2026 Serie B season was a compelling blend of unpredictability and opportunity, with a total of 390 fixtures analysed and 317 fixtures featuring valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate across all fixtures stood at 58.7%, indicating a high degree of accuracy in our predictive models.
Signal Performance
The performance of signals varied significantly based on their star rating, with the highest-rated (★★★) signals delivering the most consistent results. Here’s a breakdown:
- Home signals:
- ★★★: 17 bets, 17 won (100.0% hit rate)
- ★★: 106 bets, 66 won (62.3% hit rate), 26 draws
- ★: 78 bets, 35 won (44.9% hit rate), 29 draws
- Overall: 118/201 (58.7%)
- Away signals:
- ★★★: 10 bets, 5 won (50.0% hit rate), 3 draws
- ★★: 72 bets, 33 won (45.8% hit rate), 23 draws
- ★: 34 bets, 10 won (29.4% hit rate), 12 draws
- Overall: 48/116 (41.4%)
The home signals, particularly the ★★★ rated ones, outperformed away signals, highlighting the importance of considering home advantage in betting strategies.
Match Winner P&L
Backing Every Signal
Betting on every signal with available odds resulted in:
- 198 bets
- 110 wins (55.6%)
- P&L +23.51 units
- ROI +11.87%
Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)
Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) resulted in:
- 49 bets
- 21 wins (42.9%)
- P&L +11.57 units
- ROI +23.61%
While backing every signal generated a positive P&L, filtering to value bets significantly improved ROI, indicating that selective betting can be more profitable.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 12 | 66.7%| 12 | +3.51 | 29.3% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 47 | 48.9%| 46 | -3.44 | -7.5% | 4 | -1.80 | -45.0% |
| 50-55% | 85 | 47.1%| 85 | -10.19 | -12.0% | 39 | -8.83 | -22.6% |
| 55-60% | 54 | 48.1%| 53 | -8.79 | -16.6% | 26 | -5.01 | -19.3% |
| 60-65% | 22 | 68.2%| 21 | +2.43 | 11.6% | 13 | +1.10 | 8.5% |
| 70%+ | 78 | 56.4%| 78 | +1.62 | 2.1% | 30 | +0.80 | 2.7% |
| Total| 217 | 53.1%| 217| -16.48| -7.6%| 82| -14.54| -17.7%|
The overall actual rate of 53.1% closely matched the V12 model average, suggesting the model's predictions were accurate.
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 44 | 50.0%| 44 | +4.35 | 9.9% | 7 | +2.60 | 37.1% |
| 45-50% | 50 | 42.0%| 50 | -6.50 | -13.0% | 23 | -2.70 | -11.7% |
| 50-55% | 66 | 47.0%| 66 | -4.55 | -6.9% | 42 | -3.69 | -8.8% |
| 55-60% | 40 | 52.5%| 38 | -3.67 | -9.7% | 22 | -2.21 | -10.0% |
| 60-65% | 20 | 65.0%| 20 | +2.70 | 13.5% | 15 | +1.63 | 10.9% |
| 70%+ | 70 | 55.7%| 70 | +2.02 | 2.9% | 20 | +0.44 | 2.2% |
| Total| 218 | 48.2%| 218| -7.67| -3.5%| 109| -4.37| -4.0%|
The actual rate of 48.2% was slightly below the V12 model average of 50.7%, indicating the model slightly overestimated the number of over 2.5 goals fixtures.
Team Analysis
Over-Performers
- Frosinone: 75 goals, xG 59.0 (+15.98 vs model), 23W/12D across 38 fixtures
- Venezia: 77 goals, xG 61.8 (+15.21 vs model), 24W/10D across 38 fixtures
- Monza: 67 goals, xG 57.5 (+9.52 vs model), 24W/12D across 42 fixtures
- Catanzaro: 68 goals, xG 60.8 (+7.19 vs model), 17W/15D across 43 fixtures
- Palermo: 62 goals, xG 56.0 (+5.97 vs model), 21W/12D across 40 fixtures
Under-Performers
- Sampdoria: 35 goals, xG 40.4 (-5.44 vs model), 11W/11D across 38 fixtures
- Sudtirol: 38 goals, xG 42.0 (-4.00 vs model), 8W/19D across 40 fixtures
- Bari: 38 goals, xG 40.1 (-2.07 vs model), 10W/12D across 40 fixtures
Signal Hit Rates by Team
- Mantova: 5/7 signals correct (71.4%)
- Frosinone: 22/32 signals correct (68.8%)
- Venezia: 24/35 signals correct (68.6%)
- Monza: 19/32 signals correct (59.4%)
- Palermo: 20/34 signals correct (58.8%)
- Modena: 11/19 signals correct (57.9%)
- Cesena: 9/16 signals correct (56.3%)
- Sampdoria: 6/11 signals correct (54.5%)
Players to Follow
Top Scorers
- Joel Pohjanpalo (Palermo): 25 goals, 6 assists, 36/79 shots on target, 39 apps, 3375 mins
- Andrea Adorante (Venezia): 17 goals, 1 assist, 40/62 shots on target, 35 apps, 2089 mins
- Stiven Shpendi (Empoli): 15 goals, 2 assists, 36/63 shots on target, 36 apps, 2595 mins
Top Assisters
- Giacomo Calò (Frosinone): 15 assists, 9 goals, 3106 mins
- Pietro Iemmello (Catanzaro): 10 assists, 12 goals, 2890 mins
- Antonio Palumbo (Palermo): 10 assists, 3 goals, 2562 mins
Players to Watch
- John Yeboah (Venezia): 46/76 on target, 10 goals, 34 apps
- Cristian Shpendi (Cesena): 43/76 on target, 12 goals, 36 apps
- Andrea Adorante (Venezia): 40/62 on target, 17 goals, 35 apps
Key Takeaways
- High-rated signals (★★★) performed exceptionally well, with home signals achieving a 100% hit rate.
- Filtering to value bets improved ROI significantly, indicating that selective betting is more profitable.
- The V12 model's predictions for BTTS and Over 2.5 were generally accurate, with minor discrepancies.
- Teams like Frosinone and Venezia over-performed based on expected goals, while Sampdoria and Sudtirol under-performed.
- Key players like Joel Pohjanpalo and Andrea Adorante were standout performers, worth tracking into the next season.