Serie A 2025/2026 Season Review

Season Overview

The 2025/2026 Serie A season was an intriguing blend of highs and lows, with a total of 380 fixtures analyzed and 297 fixtures featuring valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate stood at 51.5%, indicating a season where both value and variance played significant roles.

Signal Performance

Home Signals

★★★: 16 bets, 11 won (68.8% hit rate), 2 draws
★★: 109 bets, 60 won (55.0% hit rate), 29 draws
★: 69 bets, 29 won (42.0% hit rate), 26 draws

Away Signals

★★★: 17 bets, 13 won (76.5% hit rate), 1 draw
★★: 60 bets, 34 won (56.7% hit rate), 11 draws
★: 26 bets, 12 won (46.2% hit rate), 8 draws

Overall Performance

Home Signals: 100/194 (51.5%)
Away Signals: 59/103 (57.3%)

The data indicates that higher-rated signals performed better, particularly the ★★★ signals both at home and away.

Match Winner P&L

Backing All Signals

Bets: 198
Wins: 104 (52.5%)
P&L: +4.79 units
ROI: +2.42%

Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)

Bets: 62
Wins: 20 (32.3%)
P&L: +0.40 units
ROI: +0.65%

Filtering to value bets did not significantly improve the overall performance, suggesting that while value is present, backing all signals provides a better overall return.

BTTS by Probability Bracket

|---------------|----------|-------|---------------|--------------|-------------|------------|------------|-----------|

| <45% | 16 | 50.0% | 15 | -1.00 | -6.7% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |

| 45-50% | 58 | 46.6% | 58 | -2.43 | -4.2% | 25 | +1.56 | 6.2% |

| 50-55% | 85 | 41.2% | 84 | -15.91 | -18.9% | 54 | -13.30 | -24.6% |

| 55-60% | 59 | 44.1% | 58 | -11.74 | -20.2% | 46 | -11.50 | -25.0% |

| 60-65% | 6 | 33.3% | 6 | -2.37 | -39.5% | 6 | -2.37 | -39.5% |

| 70%+ | 6 | 50.0% | 6 | +1.45 | 24.2% | 0 | N/A | N/A |

| Total | 221 | | | -33.45 | -15.1% | 132 | -26.61 | -20.2%|

Overall Actual Rate vs V12 Model Average

Actual Rate: 45.3%
V12 Model Average: 52.0%

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

|---------------|----------|-------|---------------|--------------|-------------|------------|------------|-----------|

| <45% | 59 | 50.8% | 59 | +6.57 | 11.1% | 18 | +2.43 | 13.5% |

| 45-50% | 65 | 47.7% | 65 | -0.72 | -1.1% | 30 | +6.45 | 21.5% |

| 50-55% | 70 | 47.1% | 70 | -2.27 | -3.2% | 46 | -1.08 | -2.3% |

| 55-60% | 28 | 35.7% | 28 | -9.51 | -34.0% | 19 | -5.61 | -29.5% |

| 60-65% | 2 | 0.0% | 2 | -2.00 | -100.0% | 2 | -2.00 | -100.0% |

| 70%+ | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | +1.00 | 50.0% | 0 | N/A | N/A |

| Total | 224 | | | -7.93 | -3.5% | 115 | +0.19 | 0.2% |

Overall Actual Rate vs V12 Model Average

Actual Rate: 45.5%
V12 Model Average: 48.9%

Team Analysis

Over-Performers (Scored Above xG)

Inter: 89 goals, xG 55.0 (+34.04 vs model), 27W/6D across 38 fixtures
Napoli: 58 goals, xG 41.2 (+16.82 vs model), 23W/7D across 38 fixtures
Como: 65 goals, xG 53.0 (+12.00 vs model), 20W/11D across 38 fixtures
Juventus: 61 goals, xG 51.9 (+9.12 vs model), 19W/12D across 38 fixtures
AS Roma: 56 goals, xG 48.8 (+7.25 vs model), 22W/5D across 38 fixtures

Under-Performers (Scored Below xG)

Pisa: 26 goals, xG 33.8 (-7.85 vs model), 2W/13D across 38 fixtures
Parma: 28 goals, xG 35.4 (-7.40 vs model), 11W/12D across 38 fixtures
Fiorentina: 41 goals, xG 47.9 (-6.93 vs model), 9W/15D across 38 fixtures

Signal Hit Rates by Team

Napoli: 10/13 signals correct (76.9%)
Inter: 19/26 signals correct (73.1%)
AS Roma: 17/27 signals correct (63.0%)
AC Milan: 14/23 signals correct (60.9%)
Juventus: 14/24 signals correct (58.3%)
Atalanta: 9/16 signals correct (56.3%)
Sassuolo: 6/11 signals correct (54.5%)
Como: 14/26 signals correct (53.8%)

Players to Follow

Top Scorers

Lautaro Martínez (Inter): 17 goals, 6 assists, 39/69 shots on target, 33 apps, 2178 mins
Anastasiios Douvikas (Como): 14 goals, 1 assist, 30/49 shots on target, 38 apps, 2278 mins
Marcus Thuram (Inter): 13 goals, 6 assists, 29/56 shots on target, 31 apps, 1913 mins

Top Assisters

Federico Dimarco (Inter): 16 assists, 7 goals, 2704 mins
Armand Laurienté (Sassuolo): 9 assists, 7 goals, 2614 mins
Jesús Rodriguez (Como): 9 assists, 2 goals, 1734 mins

Players to Watch

Nico Paz (Como): 48/86 on target, 12 goals, 36 apps
Kenan Yıldız (Juventus): 40/64 on target, 10 goals, 36 apps
Lautaro Martínez (Inter): 39/69 on target, 17 goals, 33 apps

Key Takeaways

Higher-rated signals (★★★) outperformed lower-rated ones, especially in away matches.
Backing all signals provided a better return compared to filtering for value bets.
Teams like Inter and Napoli over-performed significantly based on expected goals, while Pisa and Parma under-performed.
Players like Nico Paz and Kenan Yıldız demonstrated impressive shot creation and efficiency, making them worth tracking into the next season.