Segunda División 2025/2026 Season Review

Season Overview

The 2025/2026 season of the Segunda División saw a total of 451 fixtures analysed, with 344 of those fixtures having valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate for the season was 55.8%, indicating a balanced mix of accurate and inaccurate predictions.

Signal Performance

In terms of signal performance, home signals had a hit rate of 55.8%, while away signals slightly underperformed at 49.5%. Breaking it down by star rating, the ★★★ signals showed the highest accuracy, with a 57.1% hit rate for both home and away games. The ★★ signals followed closely with a 62.5% hit rate for home games and 50.0% for away games. The ★ signals had the lowest accuracy, with 48.1% for home games and 48.0% for away games.

Match Winner P&L

Betting on all available signals resulted in a win rate of 53.1% across 207 bets, yielding a P&L of +25.50 units and an ROI of +12.32%. Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) resulted in a lower win rate of 45.0% across 60 bets, but a higher ROI of +35.15%, with a P&L of +21.09 units. This suggests that focusing on value bets can significantly enhance profitability, despite the lower volume of bets.

| Approach | Bets | Win Rate | P&L | ROI |

|------------------------------|------|----------|---------|---------|

| Back all signals | 207 | 53.1% | +25.50 | +12.32% |

| Value bets only | 60 | 45.0% | +21.09 | +35.15% |

BTTS by Probability Bracket

The V12 model's predictions for Both Teams To Score (BTTS) were slightly above the actual rate of 55.9%, with a model average of 54.1%. Betting on all BTTS signals resulted in a P&L of +14.33 units and an ROI of 6.0%, while filtering to value bets yielded a P&L of +5.60 units and the same ROI of 6.0%. The highest ROI was observed in the 70%+ probability bracket, with a 100% hit rate.

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|---------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 11 | 45.5%| 11 | -1.40 | -12.7% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 44 | 56.8%| 44 | +3.64 | 8.3% | 8 | -1.55 | -19.4% |

| 50-55% | 89 | 58.4%| 89 | +7.54 | 8.5% | 34 | +4.82 | 14.2% |

| 55-60% | 65 | 56.9%| 64 | +0.98 | 1.5% | 37 | +2.14 | 5.8% |

| 60-65% | 23 | 65.2%| 23 | +1.42 | 6.2% | 10 | -1.12 | -11.2% |

| 65-70% | 5 | 80.0%| 5 | +1.08 | 21.6% | 3 | +0.24 | 8.0% |

| 70%+ | 2 | 100% | 2 | +1.07 | 53.5% | 2 | +1.07 | 53.5% |

| Totals | 238 | | 238 | +14.33 | 6.0% | 94 | +5.60 | 6.0% |

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

For Over 2.5 goals, the actual rate was 50.3%, slightly below the model average of 51.9%. Betting on all signals resulted in a P&L of +9.19 units and an ROI of 3.8%, while value bets yielded a P&L of +2.10 units and an ROI of 1.7%. The highest ROI was again in the 70%+ probability bracket, with a 66.7% hit rate.

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|---------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 38 | 50.0%| 38 | +2.38 | 6.3% | 8 | +1.90 | 23.7% |

| 45-50% | 61 | 60.7%| 61 | +14.65 | 24.0% | 27 | +2.88 | 10.7% |

| 50-55% | 74 | 41.9%| 74 | -13.15 | -17.8% | 47 | -4.49 | -9.6% |

| 55-60% | 38 | 63.2%| 38 | +5.76 | 15.2% | 25 | +4.49 | 18.0% |

| 60-65% | 19 | 57.9%| 19 | -0.90 | -4.7% | 10 | -2.65 | -26.5% |

| 65-70% | 6 | 66.7%| 6 | +0.38 | 6.3% | 5 | -0.10 | -2.0% |

| 70%+ | 3 | 66.7%| 3 | +0.07 | 2.3% | 3 | +0.07 | 2.3% |

| Totals | 239 | | 239 | +9.19 | 3.8% | 125 | +2.10 | 1.7% |

Team Analysis

Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG), with Racing Santander leading the pack with 26.38 goals above xG. On the flip side, Zaragoza under-performed the most with 8.10 goals below xG. Signal hit rates were highest for AD Ceuta FC at 80.0% and lowest for Eibar and Burgos at 61.1%.

Players to Follow

Several players stood out in terms of shot creation and efficiency. Sergio Arribas from Almeria, with 51 shots on target out of 96, and Andrés Martín from Racing Santander, with 51 on target out of 87, are worth tracking into the next season. Chupete from Malaga also showed impressive efficiency with 48 on target out of 76 shots.

Key Takeaways