Where the model has them
The model projects Sassuolo to finish 11th in Serie A this season, with an expected finishing position of 12.2. The probabilities show a 0.01% chance of the title, 0.92% for the top four, and an 8.83% chance of relegation. The model expects them to finish on 46.6 points. This projection comes from their attack strength multiplier of 1.09 (1.00 is the league average, so this is a slightly above-average attack) and a defence multiplier of 1.3 (lower is better here, so this is a below-average defence). Their attacking Elo is 1608 and defending Elo is 1624, both mid-table numbers.
In attack
Sassuolo's attack is projected as slightly above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.09. The key attacking players to watch are Andrea Pinamonti, who scored 9 goals in 36 appearances last season, and Armand Laurienté, who provided 9 assists in 38 games. Pinamonti also led the shot volume with 57 in 36 appearances. Domenico Berardi chipped in with 8 goals and 4 assists, whilst Laurienté added 7 goals to his 9 assists. Despite these contributions, Sassuolo lacked a high-volume scorer last season, with Pinamonti's 9 goals being the best in the squad. This is something to keep in mind when looking at their attacking potential.
In defence
On the defensive side, Sassuolo is projected as below average, with a defence multiplier of 1.3. The leaders in defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, blocks per 90) are Luca Lipani with 4.03, Darryl Bakola with 3.65, and Cas Odenthal with 3.45. Filippo Missori, who joined in the transfer window, also stands out with 49 tackles won in 31 appearances. Despite these efforts, the defence is seen as a soft spot, which will likely be a key factor in their projected mid-table finish.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that impacted the model's projections. On the attacking side, Riccardo Ciervo arrived and is expected to contribute, whilst Tarik Muharemović left after scoring 2 goals last season. Defensively, Filippo Missori joined and is expected to be a significant presence, having recorded 86 defensive actions last season. Tarik Muharemović also departed, which slightly weakened the defence. These changes moved the attack multiplier from 0.99 to 1.09 and the defence from 1.17 to 1.3, reflecting the new dynamics.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses for Sassuolo this season are their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and a defence that is rated below average. These factors combined pose the biggest risks to their projected 11th-place finish. If they can't find more consistent attacking threats or shore up their defence, they could find themselves battling nearer the relegation zone than the model currently projects.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Andrea Pinamonti | 9 | 0.25 | 25% |
| Assists | Armand Laurienté | 9 | 0.24 | 18% |
| Shots | Andrea Pinamonti | 57 | 1.58 | 83% |
| Tackles won | Filippo Missori | 49 | 1.58 | 81% |
| Fouls drawn | Kristian Thorstvedt | 57 | 1.78 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Kieron Bowie | 33 | 2.2 | 100% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Luca Lipani | 4.03 | 24 |
| Darryl Bakola | 3.65 | 15 |
| Cas Odenthal | 3.45 | 18 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Riccardo Ciervo (5g), out Tarik Muharemović (2g)
- Defence: in Filippo Missori (86 def actions), out Tarik Muharemović
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._