RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin - Bundesliga Preview

Bundesliga | Friday, 24 April 2026 | 18:30 GMT

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RB Leipzig

Over their last five home games, RB Leipzig have played five times, winning three, drawing two, scoring 12 goals and conceding five. Specifically, they won 1-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach, 5-0 against 1899 Hoffenheim, 2-1 against FC Augsburg, drew 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund, and drew 2-2 with VfL Wolfsburg. In the last ten games overall, they've won seven, drawn two, and lost one, scoring 21 goals and conceding ten.

Union Berlin

In their last five away games, Union Berlin have played five times, winning one, drawing none, and losing four, scoring four goals and conceding eleven. Specifically, they lost 1-3 to 1. FC Heidenheim, lost 0-4 to Bayern München, won 1-0 against SC Freiburg, lost 0-1 to Borussia Mönchengladbach, and lost 2-3 to Hamburger SV. Across their last ten games in all competitions, they've won two, drawn two, and lost six, scoring nine goals and conceding nineteen.

Why BetSignals Rates This Game

Our primary model gives RB Leipzig a 51.5% chance of winning, a 23.7% chance of a draw, and Union Berlin a 22.1% chance of taking all three points. A second model independently agrees with this direction, which is why we've given this fixture a 3* signal rating.

In terms of attacking threat, RB Leipzig have an expected goal (sG) figure of 1.99, while Union Berlin sit lower at 0.91. A gap of over 1 sG should not be ignored. The model also indicates a 53% chance of both teams scoring and a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored. This suggests the game should be fairly open.

RB Leipzig's higher shot volume (14.5 shots for compared to 11 for Union) and better goals per game ratio (2.125 to 0.75) helps explain why our model leans towards a Leipzig win. Union Berlin's defensive record isn't great, conceding 4.625 shots on target per game.

Player Intelligence

When it comes to shots on target per 90 minutes, that's the standout category for both teams combined, with 1.862 being the top value across all players. Tackling is the second most impressive category, with 2.528 being the highest per 90 minute rate. If you want the full player-level breakdown, log in or create a free account on BetSignals. No guarantees, no hard selling - just the data to help you make up your own mind.