Eredivisie | Friday, 9 October 2026 | 18:00 GMT

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PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven has a 3-2-0 home record in their last five games, scoring 17 goals and conceding 6. The scorelines were 4-1 vs Sparta Rotterdam, 1-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk, 5-1 vs Groningen, 2-2 vs Fortuna Sittard, and 5-1 vs Twente. Overall, across their last 10 games, they have a 7-2-1 record with 34 goals for and 13 against.

Heerenveen

Heerenveen's away form shows a 1-2-2 record in their last five away games, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded. The results were 4-0 vs Sparta Rotterdam, 2-2 vs Willem II, 2-2 vs Ajax, 2-3 vs Utrecht, and 0-2 vs NAC Breda. Overall, in their last 10 games, they have a 2-4-4 record with 13 goals for and 14 against.

What the Numbers Say

The primary model rates PSV Eindhoven at 55% to win this match, making them the standout accumulator leg today. The model sees the home side as the most likely result, with a 19.2% chance of a draw and 25.3% for an away win. A second independent model agrees on the home win direction. This is why PSV Eindhoven leads the card: they are the most probable result across the fixture list.

However, the price on PSV Eindhoven at 1.25 offers no value. The model's fair odds for a home win are 1.82, so the market price is fair or shorter. This fixture carries a 1* value star, meaning there is no value edge. BetSignals surfaces the numbers and the decision is yours. The sG (signal goals) for PSV Eindhoven is 2.37 compared to 1.55 for Heerenveen, reflecting the home side's stronger attacking threat. The BTTS probability is 63% and the over 2.5 goals probability is 66%, suggesting an open game.

Player Intelligence

The most striking category across both teams is shots per 90 minutes. PSV Eindhoven has a player with 3.649 shots per 90, whilst Heerenveen's top player sits at 4.254. The second most striking category is shots on target per 90, with PSV Eindhoven's top player at 1.52 and Heerenveen's at 2.239. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals and get more data for your own analysis.