Where the model has them
The model projects PSV Eindhoven to finish around 1st place this season, with a 65.52% chance of winning the title, a 94.65% chance of securing a top-four finish, and a 0.00% chance of relegation. Expected points are set at 70.7. This projection is driven by their strong attack and solid defence. The attack strength multiplier stands at 1.8, which is well above the league average of 1.00, indicating a potent offensive unit. On the defensive side, the multiplier is 0.92, slightly below the average of 1.00, suggesting a robust defence that concedes fewer goals. Their attacking Elo rating of 1782 and defending Elo of 1593 further support this balanced outlook.
In attack
PSV's attack is formidable, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.8. Key to this is Ricardo Pepi, who scored 18 goals in 30 appearances last season, contributing 53% of the team's goals. Mauro Júnior provided 11 assists in 32 games, accounting for 34% of the team's assists. Pepi also led in shot volume with 50 shots in 30 appearances. Other top scorers include Sven Mijnans with 17 goals and 7 assists, and Guus Til with 16 goals and 6 assists. This potent attacking lineup ensures PSV will create plenty of chances and score goals regularly.
In defence
Defensively, PSV holds a 0.92 multiplier, indicating a solid but not exceptional defence. Leading the way in defensive actions are Noah Fernandez with 4.26 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Mauro Júnior with 4.22, and Jerdy Schouten with 4.09. Joey Veerman won 72 tackles in 38 appearances, showing a strong work rate in breaking up opposition play. Whilst not the tightest defence in the league, PSV's backline is competent enough to keep them competitive throughout the season.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that slightly adjusted the model's view. The arrival of Sven Mijnans, who scored 17 goals and completed 84 defensive actions last season, balanced the loss of Ismael Saibari, who also scored 17 goals. Defensively, the departure of Anass Salah-Eddine was offset by Mijnans’s contributions. The attack multiplier remained stable at 1.8, whilst the defence multiplier improved slightly from 0.89 to 0.92. These changes suggest a squad that remains well-equipped for the upcoming season.
Weaknesses and risks
The model does not flag any significant weaknesses for PSV this season. With a strong attack, solid defence, and key players in form, the main risk to their projection would be injuries to key personnel like Ricardo Pepi or Mauro Júnior. Otherwise, PSV looks well-positioned to challenge for the title and secure a top-four finish with confidence.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Ricardo Pepi | 18 | 0.6 | 53% |
| Assists | Mauro Júnior | 11 | 0.34 | 34% |
| Shots | Ricardo Pepi | 50 | 1.67 | 80% |
| Tackles won | Joey Veerman | 72 | 1.89 | 87% |
| Fouls drawn | Sergiño Dest | 41 | 1.24 | 64% |
| Fouls committed | Kiliann Sildillia | 26 | 1.24 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Fernandez | 4.26 | 10 |
| Mauro Júnior | 4.22 | 32 |
| Jerdy Schouten | 4.09 | 36 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Sven Mijnans (17g), out Ismael Saibari (17g)
- Defence: in Sven Mijnans (84 def actions), out Anass Salah-Eddine
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._