End-of-Season Analysis: Premier League 2025/2026

Season Overview

The 2025/2026 Premier League season saw 380 fixtures analysed, with 336 fixtures having valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate for the season was 52.2%.

Signal Performance

The season's signal performance varied significantly by category and star rating. Home signals with a ★★★ rating had the highest hit rate at 80.0%, with 20 out of 25 bets won. Draw signals, with a single ★ rating, had a 50.0% hit rate, winning 1 out of 2 bets. Away signals were less successful, with the highest hit rate at 47.7% for ★★ signals, winning 41 out of 86 bets.

| Signal Type | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ |

|-------------|-----|----|---|

| Home | 80.0% | 49.0% | 47.5% |

| Draw | - | 50.0% | - |

| Away | 40.0% | 47.7% | 31.0% |

Match Winner P&L

Backing Every Signal

Betting on every signal with available odds resulted in 216 bets, with 90 wins (41.7%). The overall P&L was -41.94 units, translating to an ROI of -19.42%.

Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)

Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) resulted in 64 bets, with 15 wins (23.4%). The P&L was -14.11 units, with an ROI of -22.05%. Filtering to value bets did not add meaningful edge in this season.

|------------------------|------|------|----------|-------|--------|

| Back all signals | 216 | 90 | 41.7% | -41.94| -19.42%|

| Value bets only | 64 | 15 | 23.4% | -14.11| -22.05%|

BTTS by Probability Bracket

The actual BTTS rate for the season was 56.1%, slightly below the V12 model average of 56.6%.

|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | +0.70 | 70.0% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 26 | 50.0% | 26 | -2.22 | -8.5% | 2 | -2.00 | -100.0% |

| 50-55% | 56 | 57.1% | 56 | -1.50 | -2.7% | 11 | -3.25 | -29.5% |

| 55-60% | 69 | 62.3% | 69 | +4.45 | 6.4% | 22 | +7.57 | 34.4% |

| 60-65% | 50 | 54.0% | 50 | -7.51 | -15.0% | 23 | -7.89 | -34.3% |

| 65-70% | 9 | 77.8% | 9 | +2.91 | 32.3% | 8 | +2.47 | 30.9% |

| TOTALS | 211 | 56.1% | 211 | -3.17 | -1.5% | 66 | -3.10 | -4.7% |

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

The actual Over 2.5 rate was 54.7%, slightly above the V12 model average of 54.1%.

|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 18 | 55.6% | 18 | +0.96 | 5.3% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |

| 45-50% | 51 | 47.1% | 51 | -8.74 | -17.1% | 6 | +0.55 | 9.2% |

| 50-55% | 41 | 58.5% | 41 | +1.37 | 3.3% | 10 | +3.96 | 39.6% |

| 55-60% | 54 | 55.6% | 54 | -3.80 | -7.0% | 22 | -3.65 | -16.6% |

| 60-65% | 36 | 44.4% | 36 | -9.65 | -26.8% | 21 | -5.17 | -24.6% |

| 65-70% | 11 | 72.7% | 11 | +2.25 | 20.5% | 8 | +2.30 | 28.7% |

| TOTALS | 211 | 54.7% | 211 | -17.61 | -8.3% | 68 | -3.01 | -4.4% |

Team Analysis

Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG), with Manchester City leading the pack, scoring 77 goals compared to an xG of 54.9. Arsenal, Brentford, and Manchester United also scored above their xG, while Wolves, Tottenham, and Crystal Palace under-performed.

|---------------|-------|------|------------------|-----|

| Manchester City | 77 | 54.9 | +22.12 | 23W/9D |

| Manchester United | 69 | 56.2 | +12.84 | 20W/11D |

| Arsenal | 71 | 61.7 | +9.32 | 26W/7D |

| Brentford | 55 | 47.4 | +7.61 | 14W/11D |

| Bournemouth | 58 | 51.1 | +6.89 | 13W/18D |

| Wolves | 27 | 35.8 | -8.82 | 3W/12D |

| Tottenham | 48 | 55.6 | -7.61 | 10W/11D |

| Crystal Palace | 41 | 48.6 | -7.59 | 11W/12D |

Players to Follow

Erling Haaland topped the scoring charts with 27 goals and 8 assists. Other notable players include Igor Thiago (20 goals), Antoine Semenyo (17 goals), and Ollie Watkins (16 goals). Players to watch based on underlying numbers include Erling Haaland, Igor Thiago, Antoine Semenyo, and Ollie Watkins.

Key Takeaways

Home signals with a ★★★ rating performed best, with an 80.0% hit rate.
Filtering to value bets did not add meaningful edge in this season.
Over 2.5 bets in the 65-70% probability bracket offered the best ROI.
Manchester City, Manchester United, and Arsenal over-performed relative to their xG, while Wolves, Tottenham, and Crystal Palace under-performed.

This analysis provides valuable insights for BetSignals subscribers looking to refine their betting strategies for the upcoming season.

Premier League 2025/2026 Season Review