Where the model has them
The model has PEC Zwolle finishing around 18th this season. There's a 61.97% chance they'll be relegated, with a projected 31.6 points. That's driven by their attack and defence strength, plus their Elo ratings. The attack multiplier of 0.82 shows they're below the league average in attack, whilst the defence multiplier of 1.34 (remember, lower is better here) means they're leakier than average at the back. Their attacking Elo is 1536, whilst their defensive Elo is 1545.
In attack
PEC Zwolle's attack is below average, with a strength multiplier of 0.82. Key attacking players include Elias Sørensen, who scored 7 goals in 14 appearances last season, and Koen Kostons, who led the team in assists with 6 and shot volume with 52. Kostons also scored 11 goals, making him the top scorer last season. Despite these contributions, the team lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Kostons' 11 goals being the best in the squad. Elias Sørensen and Thijs Oosting, with 7 and 6 goals respectively, add to the scoring but don't change the below-average attack rating.
In defence
Defensively, PEC Zwolle are rated worse than average, with a defence multiplier of 1.34. The defensive-actions leaders include Nick Fichtinger, with 8.03 actions per 90 minutes, Ryan Thomas with 5.17, and Olivier Aertssen with 4.7. Despite these efforts, the defence remains a soft spot. The arrival of Tobias Sommer, who had 87 defensive actions last season, is a positive, but it's clear the defence is still a concern.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that nudged the model's numbers. Offensively, the arrival of Elias Sørensen (7 goals last season) slightly lowered the attack multiplier from 0.83 to 0.82. Defensively, the addition of Tobias Sommer (87 defensive actions) improved the defence multiplier from 1.25 to 1.34. Notable departures included Kaj de Rooij (6 goals) and Anselmo Garcia McNulty, but these moves didn't dramatically shift the overall outlook.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to the projection revolve around PEC Zwolle's below-average attack and above-average leaky defence. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer and the defensive vulnerabilities are the key weaknesses. These factors, combined with their Elo ratings, drive the model's pessimistic view of their season. If they can't improve in these areas, the relegation probability of 61.97% looks fair.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Elias Sørensen | 7 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Assists | Koen Kostons | 6 | 0.18 | 18% |
| Shots | Koen Kostons | 52 | 1.53 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Ryan Thomas | 62 | 2.3 | 93% |
| Fouls drawn | Tobias Sommer | 47 | 1.88 | 80% |
| Fouls committed | Ryan Thomas | 36 | 1.33 | 85% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Fichtinger | 8.03 | 20 |
| Ryan Thomas | 5.17 | 27 |
| Olivier Aertssen | 4.7 | 28 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Elias Sørensen (7g), out Kaj de Rooij (6g)
- Defence: in Tobias Sommer (87 def actions), out Anselmo Garcia McNulty
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._