Where the model has them
The model has Parma finishing 18th, with a 38.64% chance of relegation. Expected points are 37.2. This projection is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 0.62 and a defence multiplier of 1.02. For context, 1.00 is the league average for both, with lower numbers indicating stronger defence and higher numbers signalling a more potent attack. Parma’s attacking Elo stands at 1523, whilst their defensive Elo is 1653.
In attack
Parma’s attack is rated below the league average, with a strength multiplier of 0.62. Nesta Elphege is the key attacking player, contributing 6 goals and 4 assists last season. Adrián Bernabé also stands out with 29 shots in 32 appearances. Despite these contributions, Parma lacks a proven high-volume scorer. Their top scorer last season, Elphege, netted just 6 goals, highlighting a significant weakness in their attacking setup.
In defence
Defensively, Parma holds a slight edge with a multiplier of 1.02. Their defensive-actions leaders include Lautaro Valenti with 3.96 actions per 90, Mandela Keita with 3.87, and Abdoulaye Ndiaye with 3.69. This suggests a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit. The defence isn’t a glaring weakness, but it’s not enough to offset the struggles in attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Parma’s model numbers. The attack multiplier shifted from 0.64 to 0.62 following the arrival of Nesta Elphege, who scored 6 goals last season, and the departure of Mateo Pellegrino, who netted 9. Defensively, the multiplier improved from 1.05 to 1.02 with the addition of Rachid Kouda, who contributed 49 defensive actions, and the loss of Gabriel Strefezza. These changes suggest a marginal strengthening overall, but nothing transformative.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Parma’s projection revolve around their below-average attack and the lack of a high-volume scorer. This, coupled with only a slight defensive advantage, leaves them vulnerable to finishing in the relegation zone. The model’s 38.64% chance of relegation reflects these concerns.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Nesta Elphege | 6 | 0.23 | 23% |
| Assists | Nesta Elphege | 4 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Adrián Bernabé | 29 | 0.91 | 63% |
| Tackles won | Abdoulaye Ndiaye | 17 | 1.55 | 91% |
| Fouls drawn | Adrián Bernabé | 61 | 1.91 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Mariano Troilo | 27 | 1.29 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Valenti | 3.96 | 27 |
| Mandela Keita | 3.87 | 37 |
| Abdoulaye Ndiaye | 3.69 | 11 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Nesta Elphege (6g), out Mateo Pellegrino (9g)
- Defence: in Rachid Kouda (49 def actions), out Gabriel Strefezza
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._