Northampton vs Plymouth - League One Preview

League One | Saturday, 2 May 2026 | 14:00 GMT

Recent Form

Northampton

Northampton have not won a game in their last 10, losing 8 and drawing 2. At home, they’ve lost 4 out of 4 games, scoring just 2 goals and conceding 9. Overall, they’ve managed 6 goals in the last 10 matches while conceding 24. The specific results are: 0-1 against Barnsley, 1-3 against Doncaster, 1-3 against Wigan, 0-2 against Burton Albion, 1-5 against Cardiff, 1-2 against Luton, 1-3 against Wigan, 0-1 against Bradford, 1-4 against Mansfield Town, and 1-2 against Stockport County.

Plymouth

Plymouth has been more successful recently, winning 6, drawing 3, and losing just 1 in their last 10 games. On the road, they’ve won 3, drawn 2, and lost 0, scoring 12 goals and conceding 4. Overall, they’ve scored 21 goals and conceded 10 in the last 10. The results are: 1-1 with Bradford, 3-1 against AFC Wimbledon, 3-0 against Barnsley, 2-2 with Reading, 3-0 against Wigan, 2-1 against Port Vale, 2-2 with Exeter City, 1-2 with Bolton, 3-1 against Huddersfield, and 1-0 against Stevenage.

Why BetSignals Rates This Game

The primary model gives us a home win probability of 20%, a draw at 22%, and a 54% chance for Plymouth to come away with the win. Now, a second model independently agrees on this direction, boosting our confidence. This cross-model agreement earns us a 3* signal rating. So, while we can’t guarantee anything, the numbers are leaning towards Plymouth.

Digging into the expected goals, Northampton’s attack isn’t creating much threat, with an average of just 0.91 signal goals per game. Plymouth, on the other hand, is more potent, with an average of 2.27 signal goals. This matches up with the shot volume data: Northampton averages 9.5 shots but only 2.75 on target, while Plymouth hits 16 shots with 6.4 on target. Defensively, Plymouth is also stronger, conceding just 1 goal per game compared to Northampton’s 2.6.

What the data says

The expected goals data and shot volumes suggest Plymouth is the more likely side to score. Both teams to score has a 61% probability, and over 2.5 goals is at 60%, so we’re looking at an open game with chances at both ends.

Player Intelligence

Looking at the player insights, tackles are a big part of both teams' games. Northampton has 3 players averaging over 2.0 tackles per 90 minutes, with the top performer at 3.99. Plymouth edges it here though, with 5 players above the 2.0 mark, led by a player averaging 4.71 tackles per 90. When it comes to drawing fouls, Plymouth has the edge with 6 players averaging over 1.5 fouls per 90 minutes, led by a player at 3.67.

For shooting, Northampton has 2 players averaging over 1.5 shots per 90, topped by a player at 1.98. Plymouth has 4 players over the 1.5 shots mark, with the top player at 3.74. On target, Northampton has 1 player above 1.0 per 90, with the best at 1.45. Plymouth has 4 players over 1.0 per 90, led by a player at 2.27.

Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown. No tips, just quality insights to help you crack on with your selections.