Where the model has them
The model has NEC Nijmegen finishing around 5th this season. The probabilities paint a clear picture: a 2.40% chance of lifting the title, a 27.38% shot at the top four, and a very low 1.48% risk of relegation. This projection is driven by the balance of their attack and defence. Their attack strength multiplier of 1.19 (1.00 is the league average, higher means stronger) suggests a solid but not spectacular offence. Their defence multiplier of 1.02 (1.00 is average, lower is better) indicates a fairly sturdy backline, though not one that stands out as elite. Their attacking Elo of 1656 and defending Elo of 1583 reflect this balance, placing them comfortably in mid-table contention.
In attack
NEC's attack, with a strength multiplier of 1.19, is slightly above average. Kaj Sierhuis, who banged in 12 goals last season, is the key man up front. Kodai Sano chipped in with 7 assists from 34 appearances, showing decent creativity. Bryan Linssen led the shot volume with 59 shots in 32 games, proving he's a constant threat. The top scorers in the squad are Bryan Linssen with 12 goals and 7 assists, Kaj Sierhuis with 12 goals and 1 assist, and Tjaronn Chery with 10 goals and 6 assists. This attack, whilst competent, doesn't scream "top four" but should provide enough firepower to secure a mid-table finish.
In defence
Defensively, NEC sit just above average with a multiplier of 1.02. The defensive-actions leaders are Deveron Fonville with 4.81 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Brayann Pereira with 4.38, and Darko Nejašmić with 3.97. Darko Nejašmić won 63 tackles in 29 appearances, showing he's a workhorse in the middle. This defence isn't going to keep a ton of clean sheets, but it should be solid enough to not let them down too often.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw NEC's attack multiplier drop from 1.33 to 1.19 and their defence multiplier rise slightly from 0.99 to 1.02. The key attacking arrival was Kaj Sierhuis, who scored 12 goals last season, whilst the notable departure was Başar Önal, who chipped in with 7 goals. On the defensive side, Jamiro Monteiro arrived, bringing 56 defensive actions, whilst Ahmetcan Kaplan left. These changes suggest a slight weakening in attacking output but a marginal improvement at the back.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to NEC's projection is the net attacking output lost in the transfer window, specifically the departure of Başar Önal, who scored 7 goals last season. This reduction in goal-scoring threat could see them struggle to break down stubborn defences, potentially dragging their points total down. Keep an eye on their away form, where their defence might be tested more, and their ability to find the net consistently.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Kaj Sierhuis | 12 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Assists | Kodai Sano | 7 | 0.21 | 21% |
| Shots | Bryan Linssen | 59 | 1.84 | 91% |
| Tackles won | Darko Nejašmić | 63 | 2.17 | 90% |
| Fouls drawn | Jamiro Monteiro | 40 | 1.9 | 81% |
| Fouls committed | Bryan Linssen | 35 | 1.09 | 81% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Deveron Fonville | 4.81 | 29 |
| Brayann Pereira | 4.38 | 24 |
| Darko Nejašmić | 3.97 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Kaj Sierhuis (12g), out Başar Önal (7g)
- Defence: in Jamiro Monteiro (56 def actions), out Ahmetcan Kaplan
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._