Where the model has them
Napoli are projected to finish 5th in Serie A this season, with an expected finishing position of 5.3. The model gives them a 4.17% chance of winning the title, a 40.86% chance of making the top four, and a 0.02% chance of relegation. This is driven by their attack and defence strength, combined with their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier of 1.26 (1.00 is the league average) shows a potent offensive unit, whilst their defence multiplier of 0.83 (lower is better) indicates a solid, if not spectacular, defensive setup. Their attacking Elo of 1650 and defending Elo of 1709 both play into these projections, suggesting a team that can score goals but also concedes its fair share.
In attack
Napoli's attack strength multiplier of 1.26 points to a unit stronger than the league average. Key to this are players like Alisson Santos, who scored 7 goals in 22 appearances last season, accounting for 32% of the games. Rasmus Højlund and Scott McTominay also played crucial roles, with Højlund netting 15 goals and 5 assists, and McTominay contributing 14 goals and 3 assists. McTominay also led in shot volume with 85 shots in 41 appearances. These numbers show Napoli have the firepower to trouble any defence in Serie A.
In defence
On the defensive side, Napoli's defence multiplier of 0.83 suggests a unit that, whilst not the best in the league, is still above average. This is backed up by their defensive-actions leaders. Mathías Olivera led the way with 4.25 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, followed by Luca Marianucci with 3.64 and Rafa Marín with 3.62. Giovanni Di Lorenzo also chipped in with 51 tackles won in 33 appearances. This defensive setup should keep Napoli competitive, even if it might not be the rock-solid backline some top-four rivals can boast.
What the window changed
The summer transfer window saw Napoli strengthen both ends of the pitch. The attack multiplier moved from 1.22 to 1.26, partly thanks to the arrival of Giovane, who scored 3 goals last season. On the other side, the defence multiplier improved from 0.81 to 0.83, with Rafa Marín bringing in his 95 defensive actions. The departure of David Neres (3 goals) and Juan Jesus didn't significantly dent these areas. Overall, the window has nudged Napoli slightly upwards in both attack and defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Napoli this season. Their attack is above average, their defence is solid, and the transfer window has only strengthened these areas. The main risk to their projection likely lies in the consistency of their key players and how well they can integrate new signings. If Højlund, McTominay, and Santos can maintain their form, and if Marín and Giovane settle quickly, Napoli should be right in the mix for a top-five finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Alisson Santos | 7 | 0.32 | 32% |
| Assists | Kevin De Bruyne | 4 | 0.19 | 14% |
| Shots | Scott McTominay | 85 | 2.07 | 81% |
| Tackles won | Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 51 | 1.55 | 76% |
| Fouls drawn | Scott McTominay | 85 | 2.07 | 85% |
| Fouls committed | Michael Folorunsho | 35 | 1.35 | 85% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mathías Olivera | 4.25 | 31 |
| Luca Marianucci | 3.64 | 11 |
| Rafa Marín | 3.62 | 28 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Giovane (3g), out David Neres (3g)
- Defence: in Rafa Marín (95 def actions), out Juan Jesus
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._